TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of Gen.G, T1
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,224,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,487,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,224,582 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4be1…aa70backed T139c156,163$60,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,231.63754.1%20 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+45.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked T137c44,364$16,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,111.791,09752.3%574 W · 523 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed T139c41,626$16,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,266.927735.7%99 W · 178 L-12.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed77…bde0backed Gen.G1c40,827$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.52045%9 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Gen.G25c40,000$9,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,967.8533838.2%129 W · 209 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3b…6598backed Gen.G0c39,552$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.91336.1%2 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-81.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed Gen.G7c37,417$2,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,437.4615933.3%53 W · 106 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bac…6fb7backed Gen.G63c34,000$21,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,538.8918633.3%62 W · 124 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be6…dc20backed Gen.G1c33,042$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Gen.G48c27,080$13,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,124.332,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed Gen.G0c21,200$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.285873.6%21 W · 566 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+176.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Gen.G63c20,000$12,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,6004528.9%13 W · 32 L-7.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-33.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Gen.G60c20,000$12,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,019.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed Gen.G72c19,575$14,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,110.4139964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb8…aa5fbacked Gen.G0c18,777$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342281.8%4 W · 224 L-0.5wins0.00per pick2cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed T136c18,228$6,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,665.6615148.3%73 W · 78 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed T123c18,186$4,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,012.3845041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Gen.G20c16,533$3,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,254.1267760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Gen.G44c16,279$7,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,188.511,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ee…1391backed Gen.G4c16,178$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.259149.5%45 W · 46 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Gen.G65c16,173$10,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,509.3625243.7%110 W · 142 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed T136c16,155$5,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,292.748143.2%35 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Gen.G65c15,000$9,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,75092254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a5…9450backed Gen.G64c13,852$8,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,80017729.9%53 W · 124 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked T140c13,586$5,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,175.61,26737.7%478 W · 789 L+35.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Gen.G75c13,169$9,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,937.7241439.6%164 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed T139c12,468$4,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,620.0120136.8%74 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Gen.G63c12,000$7,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,56059750.4%301 W · 296 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9cf…c8b9backed Gen.G4c11,570$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.4517939.1%70 W · 109 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed T137c10,811$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,810.8113846.4%64 W · 74 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf9…1e87backed Gen.G2c10,278$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21050058.8%294 W · 206 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21d0…42b1backed T139c10,007$3,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,130.445942.4%25 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed T140c10,000$3,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,027.0764455.6%358 W · 286 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefe5…6f6bbacked Gen.G64c10,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,399.95757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked T140c9,883$3,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,929.8538662.2%240 W · 146 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x535c…96babacked T137c9,296$3,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,856.521428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d91…a5fdbacked T136c8,784$3,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,621.756258.1%36 W · 26 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef07…bb26backed Gen.G65c8,616$5,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,621.497248.6%35 W · 37 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Gen.G63c8,614$5,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,435.561,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc59e…a3febacked T167c8,388$5,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,766.138150.6%41 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked T144c8,273$3,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,655.3444550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed T168c8,202$5,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,611.591,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Gen.G13c8,158$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.8946637.6%175 W · 291 L-19.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed Gen.G33c7,890$2,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,640.741,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked T135c7,750$2,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,037.53348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x895d…11d5backed Gen.G65c7,581$4,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,927.824461.4%27 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked T140c7,305$2,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,403.8526849.3%132 W · 136 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Gen.G65c7,170$4,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,643.8919371.5%138 W · 55 L+11.2wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Gen.G44c7,000$3,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,070.9767552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Gen.G61c6,594$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00016258%94 W · 68 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed88…e838backed T138c6,500$2,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0231963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0a…f102backed Gen.G80c6,392$5,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,104.537035.7%25 W · 45 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed T180c6,250$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25051748.2%249 W · 268 L+26.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Gen.G63c6,160$3,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,88137640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Gen.G65c6,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90050040.8%204 W · 296 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5903…d02bbacked Gen.G2c5,999$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9914327.3%39 W · 104 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed Gen.G62c5,750$3,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,546.1815543.9%68 W · 87 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadf4…997abacked Gen.G65c5,617$3,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,651.22142.9%9 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Gen.G11c5,608$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.751,49248.4%722 W · 770 L+47.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Gen.G2c5,382$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.622,36731.9%756 W · 1,611 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Gen.G61c5,328$3,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,251.651,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x560c…4755backed Gen.G4c5,155$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.813534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed T140c5,078$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,057.586136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Gen.G61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0507958.2%46 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a35…6fe0backed T18c5,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,60033642.3%142 W · 194 L-1.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…70afbacked T116c5,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.96922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d69…e597backed Gen.G5c4,968$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ce…ddd7backed Gen.G64c4,802$3,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,073.2511551.3%59 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Gen.G21c4,735$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.7635848.9%175 W · 183 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd13…5228backed Gen.G65c4,707$3,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,043.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked T174c4,654$3,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.7132457.7%187 W · 137 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Gen.G66c4,593$3,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,053.781,61643.8%708 W · 908 L-74.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked T169c4,583$3,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.611,54062.6%964 W · 576 L+158.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Gen.G35c4,495$1,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.281,08546.2%501 W · 584 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Gen.G3c4,491$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.537263.9%46 W · 26 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Gen.G9c4,468$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.9175942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked T130c4,440$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,129.1553139.9%212 W · 319 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Gen.G36c4,414$1,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.8150041.6%208 W · 292 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Gen.G64c4,397$2,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.671,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Gen.G4c4,275$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18024326.7%65 W · 178 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Gen.G40c4,244$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,683.433,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed T168c4,139$2,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.4585746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfde…3f9cbacked Gen.G24c4,116$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011838.1%45 W · 73 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed T16c4,089$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,852.051,24439.7%494 W · 750 L-69.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71b0…9ef4backed Gen.G8c4,088$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.3625252.4%132 W · 120 L+19.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb941…b56bbacked T137c4,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,52031646.5%147 W · 169 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed T138c3,914$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,41632440.4%131 W · 193 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed T136c3,903$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,497.7919239.1%75 W · 117 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked Gen.G64c3,799$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.3549541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d12…543bbacked Gen.G3c3,715$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005853.4%31 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Gen.G1c3,621$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8789746.9%421 W · 476 L+43.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed30…ce01backed Gen.G65c3,503$2,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,27710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6202…8872backed T116c3,471$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,924.739859.8%238 W · 160 L+31.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed Gen.G20c3,419$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.5710959.6%65 W · 44 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Gen.G60c3,293$1,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,978.8970456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Gen.G40c3,276$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.9346436.4%169 W · 295 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f3b…9ed5backed Gen.G40c3,270$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.114146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Gen.G62c3,257$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.7921754.8%119 W · 98 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x789b…11f8backed Gen.G69c3,250$2,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,228.549751.5%50 W · 47 L-8.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-17.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5cc2…e3e3backed Gen.G65c3,212$2,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,087.48666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.