TailMyPicks
Market

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs The Last Resort (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
The Last Resortof Rune Eaters, The Last Resort
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,154

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,154 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbdd…a5debacked The Last Resort48c5,450$2,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,840.797,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Rune Eaters1c4,688$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.091,5009.9%148 W · 1,352 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f14…1262backed Rune Eaters59c4,533$2,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,670.683268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Rune Eaters60c3,752$2,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,267.8584454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Rune Eaters50c2,653$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.8312752%66 W · 61 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked The Last Resort64c2,328$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.652,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed Rune Eaters55c1,868$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.2992152.6%484 W · 437 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5407…251cbacked Rune Eaters49c1,600$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.9914857.4%85 W · 63 L+11.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked The Last Resort32c1,584$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.5435342.8%151 W · 202 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rune Eaters51c1,532$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.711,72346.8%807 W · 916 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Rune Eaters39c1,390$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.5615732.5%51 W · 106 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3f9…d587backed Rune Eaters1c1,254$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5435033.4%117 W · 233 L+22.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+44.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed The Last Resort45c1,250$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.711,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed The Last Resort47c1,249$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.9580744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked Rune Eaters49c1,200$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.9975356.8%428 W · 325 L+48.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7add…7a7bbacked The Last Resort45c1,110$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.56245.2%28 W · 34 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Rune Eaters54c1,098$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.762,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad09…3c3fbacked Rune Eaters48c1,043$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.3111344.2%50 W · 63 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Rune Eaters55c1,033$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.7136253.3%193 W · 169 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Rune Eaters52c926.46$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.974,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed The Last Resort49c909.15$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.1519843.4%86 W · 112 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed The Last Resort59c707.93$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.464,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked The Last Resort52c696.73$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.7310251%52 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed The Last Resort50c679.82$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.5425147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed The Last Resort50c673$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.6546343.2%200 W · 263 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb81…2dadbacked The Last Resort48c635.35$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.582100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b8…cdb5backed The Last Resort78c598.72$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.26616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick59cpaid-78.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed The Last Resort49c541.61$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.6117847.2%84 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c74…c217backed Rune Eaters51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2553240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb36…113fbacked The Last Resort48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.22161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fdb…98dbbacked The Last Resort50c494.53$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.31757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa69…6e45backed Rune Eaters51c490$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.91947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba0…62aabacked The Last Resort47c490$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.542850%14 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Rune Eaters73c486.46$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.545565.9%300 W · 155 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef20…8f64backed The Last Resort50c448.12$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.0412533.6%42 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d1f…a252backed Rune Eaters48c440.78$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21015033.3%50 W · 100 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked The Last Resort44c436.7$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.45,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd73e…bb87backed Rune Eaters39c421.95$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9913857.2%79 W · 59 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked The Last Resort40c400$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2429027.8%25 W · 65 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed Rune Eaters56c381.55$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.6776546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f37…9b2bbacked The Last Resort47c377.14$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked The Last Resort44c368.66$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.993,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed The Last Resort51c346.21$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.645,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed Rune Eaters32c323.44$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0367651.8%350 W · 326 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb8…beaabacked The Last Resort52c313.18$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.36850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa706…4b9ebacked The Last Resort50c289$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.331957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc793…f66fbacked The Last Resort51c286.02$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.584131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42ac…7b70backed The Last Resort45c276.44$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.0410248%49 W · 53 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+12.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Rune Eaters55c273.09$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017247.7%82 W · 90 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Rune Eaters51c266.43$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5611037.3%41 W · 69 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Rune Eaters11c251.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.681,39752.4%732 W · 665 L+30.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed The Last Resort51c241.35$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.356352.4%33 W · 30 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e07…3545backed Rune Eaters49c230.33$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.797647.4%36 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x066e…6f56backed The Last Resort80c226.58$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x820e…9db7backed Rune Eaters52c213.95$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dec…058cbacked Rune Eaters52c212.79$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf93d…49e4backed Rune Eaters52c210.08$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.24450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed The Last Resort50c210$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed The Last Resort51c209.8$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.860143.1%259 W · 342 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Rune Eaters32c200.06$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.22,47424.7%611 W · 1,863 L-316.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Rune Eaters49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed The Last Resort45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1106144.3%27 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Rune Eaters12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f0…3206backed The Last Resort50c195.62$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.859842.9%42 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Rune Eaters49c190.57$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3861654.9%338 W · 278 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6d…9d6abacked The Last Resort67c189.97$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.638047.5%38 W · 42 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42f8…f96fbacked The Last Resort54c186.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Rune Eaters67c185.92$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12559049.7%293 W · 297 L-31.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed The Last Resort53c179.73$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.896049.7%477 W · 483 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ea…4847backed The Last Resort50c167.49$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.49580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+42.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb126…9848backed The Last Resort50c162$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8110251%52 W · 50 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x53fc…76d7backed The Last Resort45c162$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.146854.4%37 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Rune Eaters48c161.46$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.532844.5%146 W · 182 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1349…dc1fbacked Rune Eaters42c159.4$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.879457.4%54 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked The Last Resort52c155.5$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0410861.1%66 W · 42 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed The Last Resort40c151.56$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.569326.9%25 W · 68 L-10.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Rune Eaters50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7554032.4%175 W · 365 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x931c…bf4bbacked The Last Resort51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.432351.4%166 W · 157 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c77…6747backed Rune Eaters49c147.24$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1511230.4%34 W · 78 L-16.7wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xd4f5…7a95backed The Last Resort74c146.97$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1323751.5%122 W · 115 L-14.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Rune Eaters53c146.49$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1252755.8%294 W · 233 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked The Last Resort44c126.26$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0870038.9%272 W · 428 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Rune Eaters49c120$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.895642.6%407 W · 549 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Rune Eaters36c119.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.392,67247.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed The Last Resort30c119.57$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.770032%224 W · 476 L-45.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked The Last Resort43c115.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8516846.4%78 W · 90 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d0e…13aabacked The Last Resort43c112.27$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9915638.5%60 W · 96 L-19.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed The Last Resort34c104.94$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.261,32544.1%584 W · 741 L+44.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f3…8382backed The Last Resort50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5014439.6%57 W · 87 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedaa…89b4backed Rune Eaters27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.524535.9%88 W · 157 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd5…11bbbacked The Last Resort51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.048647.7%41 W · 45 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb72…2514backed Rune Eaters53c97.25$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc64e…746fbacked The Last Resort52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d2…a07abacked Rune Eaters53c95.77$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f03…ed48backed Rune Eaters53c93.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.540%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf0b…7cccbacked Rune Eaters55c91.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045450.2%228 W · 226 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88fb…9278backed Rune Eaters53c90.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc10a…46b5backed The Last Resort78c90$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.68166.7%54 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x975b…149bbacked The Last Resort51c88.86$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.542240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Rune Eaters52c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.762,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.