TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,774

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,982 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves45c12,675$5,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,911.223,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Cavaliers55c7,282$4,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,026.22,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Cavaliers51c6,268$3,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,168.082,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Cavaliers53c6,000$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,179.991,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Timberwolves47c5,718$2,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,030.411,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Cavaliers55c5,035$2,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,781.7651753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Cavaliers56c4,416$2,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,472.082,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…eca5backed Cavaliers21c4,399$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.392236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Timberwolves48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,08013355.6%74 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Cavaliers53c3,370$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.464651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves59c2,798$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.698,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Cavaliers52c2,500$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves57c2,159$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.363,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Timberwolves78c1,842$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.641,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves48c1,627$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.852,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Timberwolves47c1,483$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.991,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Cavaliers54c1,253$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67619359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers53c1,053$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.759,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers53c1,044$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.394,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Cavaliers54c1,024$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55065649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Timberwolves44c1,020$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.8516657.2%95 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Cavaliers54c865$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.149938.9%194 W · 305 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dc5…b639backed Cavaliers53c800$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4245437%20 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Timberwolves46c620$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.88541.2%35 W · 50 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Timberwolves47c602.46$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.31,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves45c594.37$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.912,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Timberwolves45c554.18$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.826839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers53c550$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.962,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Timberwolves44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28075347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cavaliers4c485.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.922,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Timberwolves46c468.24$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.8528241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e9…5729backed Cavaliers47c424.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.881457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves44c398$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.882,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Timberwolves48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.516740.1%67 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Cavaliers47c304.23$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1118339.3%72 W · 111 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Timberwolves69c294.13$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0231144.4%138 W · 173 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Cavaliers53c283.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15015052.7%79 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Timberwolves48c240$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.820353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Timberwolves59c220.16$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.4959141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Cavaliers55c218.18$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12036450.8%185 W · 179 L-1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Timberwolves48c209.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.191,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Timberwolves62c202.22$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1988845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Cavaliers54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033246.1%153 W · 179 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Cavaliers54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Timberwolves56c184.72$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3531044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Cavaliers36c173.53$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4759144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e7c…d12fbacked Timberwolves47c170.21$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.216735.8%24 W · 43 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Timberwolves47c161.83$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7721152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e51…9531backed Timberwolves57c151.94$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1736751.5%189 W · 178 L-1.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Timberwolves66c145.87$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2463745.8%292 W · 345 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Timberwolves44c145.2$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.312,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers50c143.49$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.34,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x708a…1f12backed Timberwolves49c142.86$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.863554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe32c…db1bbacked Cavaliers39c134.94$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0516321.5%35 W · 128 L-20.3wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-42.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7676…ada4backed Timberwolves49c122.74$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7417345.1%78 W · 95 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf10e…f4e2backed Cavaliers55c118.18$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e8f…83f8backed Timberwolves41c117.15$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.13862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+55.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Cavaliers53c113.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6019548.7%95 W · 100 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Timberwolves69c107$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.862,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe371…466abacked Timberwolves47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3811642.2%49 W · 67 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a39…031abacked Timberwolves47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.382552%13 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b2…089abacked Timberwolves47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.389340.9%38 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Timberwolves47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5350653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d5…aa48backed Timberwolves57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7802…d5b4backed Cavaliers54c95$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.310758.9%63 W · 44 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves46c91.8$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.033,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc0…3acebacked Timberwolves47c85.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3619848.5%96 W · 102 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf8a…4de3backed Cavaliers53c84.37$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Cavaliers53c83$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.997441.9%31 W · 43 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f40…600dbacked Timberwolves48c77.9$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8813945.3%63 W · 76 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Timberwolves48c65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.839756.7%225 W · 172 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Timberwolves47c62.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0366143.4%287 W · 374 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe97…89e1backed Timberwolves48c60.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4228251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed Timberwolves47c58.22$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9919242.7%82 W · 110 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d22…95b7backed Cavaliers53c56.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.014951%25 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves50c55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.75,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Timberwolves49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0260346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x279b…7d84backed Timberwolves47c49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.972552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Timberwolves49c48.42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6650948.5%247 W · 262 L+2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Timberwolves46c48.3$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.082,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43a3…3ca1backed Timberwolves64c46.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.87450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe533…8d18backed Cavaliers34c46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.642334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Timberwolves48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6722556.9%128 W · 97 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Timberwolves48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.831947.6%152 W · 167 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1f9…f6c4backed Timberwolves47c38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.142540%10 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Cavaliers53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2049358.6%289 W · 204 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x985d…e14fbacked Timberwolves47c36.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.235156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d2…22fbbacked Cavaliers56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011348.7%55 W · 58 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Timberwolves48c34.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8665950.8%335 W · 324 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8d1…6288backed Cavaliers53c32.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-44.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ca0…7ebebacked Cavaliers53c31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.434461.4%27 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked Timberwolves46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.242146.1%194 W · 227 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Timberwolves49c29.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9237949.3%187 W · 192 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Cavaliers52c29.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.193849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Timberwolves58c28.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.051,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbedf…8817backed Cavaliers54c28.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.38862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef23…9971backed Cavaliers54c27.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1528156.2%158 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd4a…7f18backed Cavaliers54c27.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156251.6%32 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Cavaliers49c27.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1539736.3%144 W · 253 L-27.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d19…8b58backed Timberwolves47c26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.783441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.