NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 240.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67fc8983eb4a72fbb9158bb6c1177b3f099c100ab4796d9215be61171aab37a2

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 9, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $49,583
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $49,083

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,583 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9315…a744backed Over	50c	11,000$5,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,500	67	67.2%45 W · 22 L	+10.7wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x18a4…1a5dbacked Under	50c	11,000$5,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,500	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Under	54c	7,997$4,314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,313.69	1,204	55.3%666 W · 538 L	+52.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	47c	5,585$2,599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,985.51	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over	51c	3,902$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,902.39	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	47c	3,736$1,747 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,989.08	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	46c	3,222$1,496 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,726.22	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Under	54c	2,410$1,301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,301.13	484	48.8%236 W · 248 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Under	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,059.88	415	53.3%221 W · 194 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Over	46c	2,000$920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,080	64	54.7%35 W · 29 L	+4.5wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Under	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.99	211	42.7%90 W · 121 L	-7.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under	51c	1,912$984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$984	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	48c	1,393$665 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$727.74	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	46c	1,011$465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$545.94	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Under	55c	1,009$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555	271	58.3%158 W · 113 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	53c	700$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Under	52c	690.38$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359	434	53.2%231 W · 203 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Under	49c	628.67$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.05	164	36.6%60 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	44c	618.14$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$346.34	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Under	54c	588.89$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	321	51.7%166 W · 155 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7289…8d16backed Under	52c	573.29$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	133	54.1%72 W · 61 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xece7…6979backed Under	50c	549.12$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.56	121	47.1%57 W · 64 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under	4c	523.7$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.02	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5093…dee4backed Under	53c	499.99$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Over	46c	418$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.72	627	44.5%279 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6921…2345backed Under	57c	400$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228	170	41.8%71 W · 99 L	-12.5wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	287	51.9%149 W · 138 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Over	58c	305$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.25	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	48cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x12f7…0899backed Over	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c7…bd87backed Under	54c	200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	56c	200$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Under	25c	200$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.21	230	47.4%109 W · 121 L	+19.2wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2d2…5614backed Under	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-29%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fdd…23d8backed Over	51c	191.2$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.69	104	54.8%57 W · 47 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c79…1bd5backed Under	53c	190.26$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.84	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	54c	190$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.6	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	47c	188.68$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	479	49.7%238 W · 241 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16e6…dc3dbacked Under	58c	172.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Under	12c	168.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	629	48.6%306 W · 323 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c8…dd64backed Under	39c	143.59$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-10.4wins	-0.14per pick	61cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	49c	117$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cbf…82abbacked Over	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	169	45.6%77 W · 92 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	378	50.3%190 W · 188 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.88	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2386…1a2dbacked Under	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	137	35.8%49 W · 88 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Under	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x820f…0ddcbacked Under	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	60c	99.15$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.66	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	49c	93.96$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.5	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	58c	89.28$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.78	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed Under	51c	85$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.35	165	47.3%78 W · 87 L	-8.8wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9202…8ef9backed Under	52c	79.11$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.48	136	46.3%63 W · 73 L	-10.1wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d29…5111backed Under	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	65cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Over	50c	73.87$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.94	160	36.3%58 W · 102 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over	49c	70$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.7	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc36…1b11backed Under	54c	55$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	99	43.4%43 W · 56 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed Under	55c	54.55$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	242	48.3%117 W · 125 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Under	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	48c	44.76$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.28	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Over	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	282	45.4%128 W · 154 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2091…b4f8backed Under	53c	41.51$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	76	39.5%30 W · 46 L	-9.7wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under	58c	40.78$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	413	54%223 W · 190 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under	58c	40.69$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	425	51.3%218 W · 207 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under	52c	40.38$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8398…749abacked Over	46c	40$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.6	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb5f…4884backed Over	47c	38.09$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.19	61	55.7%34 W · 27 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x330e…c22abacked Under	53c	37.49$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Under	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	493	58.6%289 W · 204 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd6d…c504backed Under	55c	35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	88	54.5%48 W · 40 L	+5.4wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over	46c	35$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.05	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9331…0951backed Under	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…259dbacked Under	54c	32$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	94	58.5%55 W · 39 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Under	58c	31.03$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.2	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf47…4d00backed Under	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Over	45c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	203	53.7%109 W · 94 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78b2…dd6dbacked Under	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed Under	58c	25.05$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.53	138	44.2%61 W · 77 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd18b…876dbacked Under	58c	20.69$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	113	56.6%64 W · 49 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x884c…851fbacked Under	55c	19.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	62	32.3%20 W · 42 L	-10.7wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 240.5this page
1H Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Cavaliers won
Cavaliers vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Over won
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 240.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event