TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,352 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked No1c1,592$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.321,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes39c1,573$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.321,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes66c568.65$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1911,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes42c548.32$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.345,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes45c432.72$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.068,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes49c426.62$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.485,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae0…7483backed No52c418.21$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4310539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No31c375.3$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.244,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes40c365.37$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.724,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No55c359.88$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.415,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c273.51$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No47c250.33$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.851,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes46c235$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.931,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes42c223.12$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…3925backed Yes79c220$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.24427.3%12 W · 32 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes39c218.69$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.456543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No66c214$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.243,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No58c208$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.811,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No39c205.36$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.574,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No57c204.35$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13071649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes39c173.69$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.559,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes63c159.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.766,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes50c154.77$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8170741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b33…9f80backed No43c148.32$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.44141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No30c147.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5945162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc57f…7a32backed Yes42c143.4$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+100.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No55c140$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes45c138.68$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2746743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No43c125.85$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.832,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No55c121.64$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.387,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes43c116.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.442,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes75c112.36$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.642,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes43c108.32$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.81,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes45c104.51$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.447347.9%35 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes55c100.82$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.912,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No53c100.73$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.182,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5568335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No59c98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5764167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes38c97.32$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.341,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c94.82$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.99,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes77c87.84$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.199545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No21c83.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.296,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes51c82.74$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.62,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No55c81.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1633746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No58c78.14$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.74,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No57c76.27$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.81,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes45c75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No56c75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No57c73.14$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.761,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed No18c70$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.617324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes76c68.69$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6577555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes67c59.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.824046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c58.48$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.094,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No28c57.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.991,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No58c56.82$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2375546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes44c55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.552,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No34c54.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.592,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c50.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.52,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e7…6065backed Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No55c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x400e…b6fcbacked Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No47c48.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8233350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No46c48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.295,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No61c48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2819648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes66c47.22$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.022,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed Yes39c46.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2213852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes45c45.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.972030%6 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No59c45.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.581,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No47c42.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes41c41.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No48c40.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4116148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No60c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.828455.6%158 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b09…68babacked Yes47c39.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No61c39.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1587629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes38c38.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x445f…cc13backed Yes37c38.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.536540%26 W · 39 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed Yes45c36.05$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8527056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No62c34.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5657264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes41c34.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.294,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021472%154 W · 60 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes38c31.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7246549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe89e…7219backed No58c30.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.677876.9%60 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17cc…4e1bbacked No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.82544%11 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b96…d0bcbacked Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.35863.8%37 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.318740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked Yes43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.16243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes48c29.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.593,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96fe…6a5ebacked No55c28.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.76714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick54cpaid-77.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked Yes42c28.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4644567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No38c28.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.679262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes45c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.422,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8782…0968backed Yes55c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.741546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7419…594abacked Yes44c27.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.367925.3%20 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes56c27.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0242547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No49c27.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2413551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No55c27.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7958152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.