Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Benjamin Bonzi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84301d9838a15efbba87f02ec138f8c751107cd193fd6013256accc5f95b5cb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bonziof Medvedev, Bonzi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Medvedev | 80c | 35,359$28,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,128.15 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Bonzi | 13c | 27,964$3,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,433.76 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x979f…4032backed Bonzi | 23c | 18,687$4,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,465.63 | 101 | 62.4%63 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Bonzi | 43c | 16,806$7,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,531.85 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Bonzi | 13c | 11,306$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,824.87 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…75efbacked Bonzi | 26c | 11,253$2,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,302.29 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Medvedev | 78c | 10,488$8,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,201.13 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…0a10backed Medvedev | 58c | 7,448$4,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,329.28 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Bonzi | 30c | 6,813$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,763.77 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Bonzi | 22c | 4,545$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,545.45 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Bonzi | 17c | 4,435$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,693.19 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bonzi | 30c | 3,414$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,382.92 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Bonzi | 20c | 2,693$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,141.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Bonzi | 21c | 2,500$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Medvedev | 78c | 2,496$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,954.72 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Bonzi | 18c | 2,241$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.49 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Medvedev | 79c | 2,170$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.77 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Medvedev | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bonzi | 14c | 1,891$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.22 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Medvedev | 78c | 1,655$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.01 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Medvedev | 46c | 1,649$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.42 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Medvedev | 79c | 1,619$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.05 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Bonzi | 31c | 1,397$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.53 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Bonzi | 20c | 1,380$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Medvedev | 78c | 1,273$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.99 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Medvedev | 42c | 1,164$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.93 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Bonzi | 75c | 1,112$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.44 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Medvedev | 61c | 1,083$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.59 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Medvedev | 74c | 1,076$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.73 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Medvedev | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Bonzi | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Bonzi | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Medvedev | 77c | 908.14$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.7 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…e0bdbacked Medvedev | 12c | 850$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Medvedev | 79c | 799.99$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.99 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c67…4622backed Medvedev | 25c | 770.21$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Bonzi | 58c | 678.27$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.25 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Bonzi | 41c | 610$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Bonzi | 20c | 588.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.96 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bonzi | 41c | 535$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.1 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Bonzi | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Bonzi | 20c | 490$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bonzi | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Medvedev | 24c | 425$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Bonzi | 21c | 400$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Medvedev | 61c | 400$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Medvedev | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Bonzi | 73c | 319.76$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Bonzi | 65c | 310$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 284 | 51.1%145 W · 139 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Medvedev | 80c | 307.43$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.94 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Medvedev | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Bonzi | 27c | 235.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.39 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Bonzi | 23c | 220$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.3 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Medvedev | 34c | 195.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…6b0bbacked Bonzi | 19c | 185.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Medvedev | 52c | 181.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Medvedev | 54c | 175.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Bonzi | 71c | 140.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed Medvedev | 76c | 125$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bonzi | 19c | 123.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Bonzi | 22c | 112$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.32 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Bonzi | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Bonzi | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bonzi | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Bonzi | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Medvedev | 64c | 68.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 288 | 33.3%96 W · 192 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Bonzi | 22c | 47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 50cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Medvedev | 79c | 44.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6f…9b0bbacked Bonzi | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Medvedev | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Medvedev | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 348 | 51.1%178 W · 170 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Medvedev | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…9adabacked Bonzi | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…9f49backed Bonzi | 72c | 15.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.