TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,117
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,780

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,117 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Yes30c20,435$6,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,383.573,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8566…c626backed No74c15,563$11,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,516.432236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes28c12,998$3,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,327.0975142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…13cdbacked No74c11,548$8,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,545.74560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked No74c5,570$4,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,121.84854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6195…b9e3backed Yes27c2,865$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.45540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed No62c2,273$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.0915064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5a45…b4f9backed No62c2,250$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No45c2,150$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.072,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No74c1,500$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.986256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368c…9f72backed No75c1,300$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed Yes34c1,059$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.821070%7 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0df…8f41backed No74c1,029$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.196167.2%41 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes26c869.23$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.234240.5%17 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+81.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes26c813.87$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.2622047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86be…4490backed Yes27c796.3$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.33941%16 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked No23c738.16$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.5916060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes56c701.02$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.071,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No74c700.93$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.6262452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No74c691.23$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.4435856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No62c651.52$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.9430647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes26c622.17$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4621,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No23c617.54$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5124541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No75c456$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3427758.4%45 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked No73c440.91$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.8648146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes59c431.87$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.451,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes26c384.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.624542.2%19 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No74c337$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.387328.8%21 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dce…b663backed No75c330.33$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.751770.6%12 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed Yes26c296$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2207338.4%28 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed Yes71c282.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.64785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No74c277$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9817251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No74c273.78$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.630054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed No62c238.1$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.625052%26 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Yes26c235.62$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.365038%19 W · 31 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb253…6575backed No62c223.66$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.67520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-67.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed No75c202.53$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.92955.2%16 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick71cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes26c192.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.316827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Yes26c192.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.318950.6%45 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Yes25c180$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13511543.5%50 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed No73c180$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.412356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0391…ef9bbacked Yes26c173.08$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.08862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick27cpaid+150.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed No63c167.38$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6916046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Yes28c135.96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9212064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8cd…e951backed No75c133$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.751764.7%11 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick74cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x447d…630cbacked Yes56c129.64$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.041163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf41d…5e45backed No61c126.36$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed No73c120$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.610360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes51c105.38$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5876234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c4…7c65backed No73c104$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.124555.6%25 W · 20 L-6.3wins-0.14per pick70cpaid-21.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6922332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc91a…c6b8backed No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick72cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfccd…02d6backed No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744671.7%33 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778517.6%15 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83d0…c927backed No51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502218.2%4 W · 18 L-6.5wins-0.29per pick48cpaid-68.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xd2bf…231fbacked Yes26c96.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.211947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes26c96.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.159252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Yes26c96.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+231.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x135c…968fbacked Yes75c82.67$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.67683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+35.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed No22c76.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9628822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes26c76.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9219943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed No73c70$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.112358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8405…2163backed Yes26c69.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2318140.3%73 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No74c67.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9937344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ad9…3cb4backed Yes26c66.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.071650%8 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+69.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc4e…5ee6backed Yes38c65.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2840…ec7ebacked No41c64.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.771020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9403…8e67backed Yes22c63.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+218.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa61b…e7babacked Yes80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed No73c60$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.89265.2%60 W · 32 L+13.8wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes26c53.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7581732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed Yes57c52.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.713138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Yes26c52.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.741040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe545…5bacbacked No75c51.82$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.87742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7bd…616cbacked Yes26c50.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.173959%23 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51e5…da69backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1710258.8%60 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1725855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Yes26c49.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2521450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Yes71c49.82$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.423873.7%28 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xfc81…e072backed No62c48.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes34c48.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7620153.7%108 W · 93 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x217f…9812backed Yes42c47.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No76c47.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.944655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb196…33d5backed Yes26c46.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7910262.7%64 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Yes25c44.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2214642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed Yes57c43.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.86475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9530…7c8abacked No62c42.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf5a…bf0abacked Yes73c41.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x479e…56cabacked Yes26c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked No74c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.69476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x819f…70bcbacked Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302536%9 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed No43c38.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.676936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58ce…653ebacked No62c38.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No73c38.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1878248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ad…8dddbacked No28c36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.123438.2%13 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5566…ea8fbacked No62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0e7…1d7bbacked No62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc09…21d0backed Yes47c27.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed No74c26.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201850%9 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed No68c26.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.332755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.