TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Victoria Livschitz win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,522,200
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,522,200 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfff7…6a9dbacked Yes0c63,992$70 inLost-$69.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b98…2120backed Yes0c63,797$70 inLost-$69.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb287…ea74backed Yes0c62,911$69 inLost-$69.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe079…3d53backed Yes0c60,019$80 inLost-$80.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5010…7feabacked Yes0c59,681$66 inLost-$66.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa048…09c9backed Yes0c54,657$73 inLost-$72.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55e…db43backed Yes0c54,344$64 inLost-$63.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf50…2d24backed Yes0c52,688$59 inLost-$59.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab8…b44ebacked Yes0c51,975$59 inLost-$58.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c7b…bee5backed Yes0c51,194$57 inLost-$56.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3835…044cbacked Yes0c51,165$57 inLost-$56.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6aa…e182backed Yes0c50,284$63 inLost-$62.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc9…8966backed Yes0c49,964$56 inLost-$55.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd4…6974backed Yes0c49,936$51 inLost-$51.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e04…d8e6backed Yes0c49,573$56 inLost-$56.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ce…3eb3backed Yes0c48,274$54 inLost-$53.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba30…7665backed Yes0c48,182$54 inLost-$54.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1597backed Yes0c47,798$53 inLost-$53.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee7c…b775backed Yes0c47,474$52 inLost-$52.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5aa…9128backed Yes0c47,216$54 inLost-$53.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1a…1a29backed Yes0c45,836$54 inLost-$53.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fe2…e718backed Yes0c38,472$45 inLost-$45.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa801…7fe8backed Yes0c37,670$44 inLost-$43.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784d…8e2fbacked Yes0c37,070$44 inLost-$43.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…7cbebacked Yes0c36,375$43 inLost-$42.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes0c29,246$33 inLost-$33530%0 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes0c23,321$23 inLost-$23.32480%0 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Yes0c15,000$45 inLost-$44.96119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-86.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb6…ef52backed Yes0c12,210$12 inLost-$12.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5abe…44eabacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes0c10,000$19 inLost-$18.87580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1394…2b7cbacked Yes1c6,194$73 inLost-$73.48190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes1c1,000$13 inLost-$13147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.