TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-09-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$167,898
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$231,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,898 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2635…5408backed No36c63,519$22,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,866.761723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-50.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes64c54,766$35,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,715.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yes64c13,379$8,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,818.44771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked No36c5,808$2,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.819053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed No36c4,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.973050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes63c2,714$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.291681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No35c2,000$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.2812651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed No36c1,801$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.264055%22 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddc…f21cbacked Yes66c1,727$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes65c1,334$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.53644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed No38c1,262$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.682334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No34c1,073$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.5323046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa7…9a4dbacked Yes63c1,072$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.783100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+68.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb4…acb6backed Yes62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e2…4459backed No37c988.78$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.852458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No34c956.45$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.3214846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes64c853.13$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.1338055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7428…e742backed Yes66c758.47$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a2a…4945backed Yes66c757.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8e7…ef3bbacked Yes66c757.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes63c741.87$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.3811250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Yes66c723.56$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.014671.7%33 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes63c684.46$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.17423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebdf…1fcbbacked Yes66c666.66$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.821782.4%14 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+33.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes76c566.95$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.83,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed No37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004042.5%17 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No28c505.8$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.065143.1%22 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f8…4dc3backed Yes63c476.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes65c472.81$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6633945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No37c470.86$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2224258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdee7…f032backed Yes65c461.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.54666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88de…1091backed No37c440$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.81526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c69…9e30backed Yes63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+149%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca7…ce3bbacked No31c389.74$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes64c383.98$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.232065%13 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Yes63c350.95$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.956350.8%32 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes64c331.86$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.8419347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89d1…6448backed Yes63c314.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.98966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No37c314$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.183333.3%11 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57f2…d036backed Yes64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.51968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b59…6445backed Yes66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.031681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No37c299.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11111036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c3…aa7ebacked Yes65c292.31$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.31955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a4c…6579backed No17c244.17$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.081442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid-11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x471b…d632backed Yes79c243.88$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.41837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d1…45afbacked Yes67c225.04$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.04771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked No38c213$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4434342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26dc…e03abacked Yes63c206.35$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.354100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a95…9bbbbacked Yes63c203.17$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1947…94bcbacked No35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705959.3%35 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25ad…46fcbacked Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+106.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf208…314ebacked Yes65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cff…83c4backed Yes63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes66c193.62$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Yes63c180$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.61457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86f8…1655backed Yes63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.733458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x695a…d3d6backed Yes63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.732867.9%19 W · 9 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+40.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc0e6…7358backed Yes63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.73560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06da…3181backed Yes64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a64…cd34backed Yes66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.523100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Yes64c147.44$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.087268.1%49 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No35c145$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7510942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No37c133.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5625659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed No37c132.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.281921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-68.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes63c132$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8410235.3%36 W · 66 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0e3…37fabacked Yes66c121.21$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb4c…2577backed Yes66c121.21$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe220…f862backed Yes63c119.05$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.051850%9 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes63c113.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.992369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+28.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes63c113.44$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.972450%12 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed No37c107$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.713330.3%10 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-49%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes61c102.56$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4023842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed No39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d22…3aabbacked Yes64c101.79$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.79771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5e1…7edabacked No37c100.78$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.291735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yes64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0842…eb45backed Yes64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa52…85b7backed Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe59d…dad4backed Yes64c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb5…6530backed Yes66c85.98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.232360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes62c83.08$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.313455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd809…490fbacked Yes64c82.33$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.643100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d17…b1fdbacked Yes61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes63c81.09$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.374751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c5…b378backed Yes63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.37771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1318840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8545…da3bbacked Yes64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.131275%9 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+40.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa12c…15c5backed Yes64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.13560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2d4…82e5backed Yes66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.761181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick60cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5e7…4dc9backed Yes66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.76742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked No29c69.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0710347.6%49 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53e8…bf07backed Yes63c63.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.492060%12 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes63c63.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4919943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes67c63.05$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.056459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked Yes64c62.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.56360.3%38 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d1…817ebacked No16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.