TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Roehampton: Oliver Tarvet vs Charles Broom

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oliver Tarvetof Oliver Tarvet, Charles Broom
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$190,359
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$220,610

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,359 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2978…b511backed Charles Broom21c12,035$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55041131.9%131 W · 280 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5698…4a0fbacked Charles Broom8c11,875$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950254%1 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick7cpaid+45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Charles Broom30c11,167$3,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,314.21,31843.6%574 W · 744 L-23.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc293…fac3backed Oliver Tarvet72c8,605$6,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,415.298056.3%45 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Oliver Tarvet71c6,932$4,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0094,64749.3%2,291 W · 2,356 L+159.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Oliver Tarvet60c6,028$3,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,411.334,15952.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L+66.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Charles Broom13c3,846$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.981,10145.1%497 W · 604 L-36.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Charles Broom9c3,455$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.049528.1%77 W · 875 L-18.5wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6945…729cbacked Charles Broom1c3,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9218932.3%61 W · 128 L+0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid+496.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Charles Broom40c2,832$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.91,69248.8%826 W · 866 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Charles Broom26c2,565$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.621,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed Oliver Tarvet59c2,153$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.865453.7%29 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x072f…ffddbacked Charles Broom32c2,126$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.327143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Oliver Tarvet78c2,034$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.512,99757.3%1,717 W · 1,280 L+170.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Charles Broom40c1,994$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.521,63848.2%789 W · 849 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Charles Broom28c1,869$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.453,54142.4%1,501 W · 2,040 L-44.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Charles Broom20c1,818$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.298,39642.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L-162.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc627…47b2backed Charles Broom30c1,793$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.9437557.6%216 W · 159 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7787…bf58backed Oliver Tarvet63c1,656$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.7914447.2%68 W · 76 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Charles Broom20c1,500$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.4122146.2%102 W · 119 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Charles Broom33c1,300$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42932337.5%121 W · 202 L-0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Charles Broom31c1,218$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.571,54551.5%795 W · 750 L+5.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab70…774cbacked Oliver Tarvet72c1,123$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.0416957.4%97 W · 72 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71d6…7248backed Charles Broom9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Charles Broom13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed Oliver Tarvet60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4009754.6%53 W · 44 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed Charles Broom19c999.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19018741.2%77 W · 110 L+0.9wins0.00per pick41cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Charles Broom29c877.59$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.4780558.6%472 W · 333 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Charles Broom17c822.47$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.548,15245.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L+155.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Charles Broom13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036521.6%79 W · 286 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Charles Broom15c767.62$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.1211,32543.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L+18.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Oliver Tarvet58c689.44$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.544,46667.7%3,023 W · 1,443 L+299.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Charles Broom18c678.53$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.332353.6%173 W · 150 L+20.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c2b…9b9ebacked Charles Broom40c620.88$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.963470.6%24 W · 10 L+4.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe0b0…5294backed Charles Broom33c606.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20044950.8%228 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Charles Broom40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2406,99839.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L-16.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Oliver Tarvet79c500$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.119,23144.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L-241.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Charles Broom15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7545251.5%233 W · 219 L-21.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b49…d827backed Charles Broom30c495$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.51560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Oliver Tarvet61c491.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.81,83648.4%889 W · 947 L-32.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Charles Broom35c481.19$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.993,63154.9%1,995 W · 1,636 L+110.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Charles Broom11c460.62$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3979249.1%389 W · 403 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe521…9caebacked Charles Broom19c418.74$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5644527.2%121 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4de…7eccbacked Charles Broom12c375$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458326.5%22 W · 61 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-6.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Charles Broom39c357.81$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.562,39438.4%920 W · 1,474 L+87.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Charles Broom30c342.6$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.11,01336.5%370 W · 643 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Charles Broom17c303.59$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.961,37144.5%610 W · 761 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Charles Broom11c279.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4374712.2%91 W · 656 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Charles Broom31c278.58$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.844,87541.5%2,023 W · 2,852 L-77.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Charles Broom11c278.19$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2713647.8%65 W · 71 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Charles Broom31c267.3$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.21,00154.9%550 W · 451 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Oliver Tarvet76c255.96$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.16,74048.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L+58.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2f…5e19backed Charles Broom43c255.81$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010761.7%66 W · 41 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd215…757abacked Oliver Tarvet59c254.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2428554.7%156 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa3…ac0fbacked Charles Broom42c220.12$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.452650%13 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x301f…e84cbacked Oliver Tarvet59c211.86$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8629968.9%206 W · 93 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5513…de2abacked Charles Broom18c200.37$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0873738.8%286 W · 451 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Charles Broom21c185.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Charles Broom13c185.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.412,82139.5%1,113 W · 1,708 L-82.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55a8…e802backed Charles Broom26c184.62$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4836342.1%153 W · 210 L-16.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Charles Broom30c180$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.211,84244.6%822 W · 1,020 L-15.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a55…a82abacked Oliver Tarvet61c178.69$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6931447.8%150 W · 164 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0fd…3798backed Charles Broom14c169.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.729421.3%20 W · 74 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c69…3ccebacked Charles Broom12c160.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205644.6%25 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe66…285cbacked Charles Broom13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Charles Broom9c149.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8734145.2%154 W · 187 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07aa…63bfbacked Oliver Tarvet69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.938061.3%49 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Charles Broom33c137.85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.493,41239.1%1,335 W · 2,077 L-11.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Charles Broom27c135.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.672,14237.3%799 W · 1,343 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac6…e020backed Oliver Tarvet66c130$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.534761.1%212 W · 135 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5822…8774backed Charles Broom31c128.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.968754%47 W · 40 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x360c…bf96backed Oliver Tarvet61c128.03$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.936738.8%26 W · 41 L-9.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Charles Broom14c126.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.816,68536.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L-96.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Charles Broom17c124.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2387450.6%442 W · 432 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c7…d291backed Charles Broom27c120$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410845.4%49 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Charles Broom17c118.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.571,62454.4%883 W · 741 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Charles Broom17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2087237.2%324 W · 548 L-3.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Oliver Tarvet72c109.72$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.822,00453.2%1,067 W · 937 L+52.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5429…83c2backed Charles Broom20c100.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019629.1%57 W · 139 L-0.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x572b…83dbbacked Charles Broom13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Charles Broom41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411,89548.1%911 W · 984 L+15.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe43d…3978backed Charles Broom13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d45…1c86backed Oliver Tarvet74c98.65$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.654746.8%22 W · 25 L-6.2wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-25.5%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf890…0601backed Charles Broom13c92.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Charles Broom26c87.13$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.391,25238.8%486 W · 766 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Oliver Tarvet60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331,21252%630 W · 582 L+44.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Oliver Tarvet61c81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5926546.4%123 W · 142 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Charles Broom39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.232031.3%100 W · 220 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Charles Broom40c76.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.091,06652.4%559 W · 507 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Charles Broom40c73.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.237,10049.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L+107.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Charles Broom17c73.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.621,65744.2%733 W · 924 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c4d…a427backed Charles Broom19c63.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9212748.8%62 W · 65 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Oliver Tarvet73c62.92$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1415760.5%95 W · 62 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf830…0454backed Oliver Tarvet59c61.02$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.028061.3%49 W · 31 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca1…fc25backed Charles Broom21c52.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.979052.2%47 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Oliver Tarvet67c51.4$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.963,62145.3%1,641 W · 1,980 L-3.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf39…3394backed Charles Broom33c50.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6433462.6%209 W · 125 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eeb…a72cbacked Oliver Tarvet60c50.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1918647.3%88 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5452…d12ebacked Oliver Tarvet77c50.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.775457.4%31 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Oliver Tarvet63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.53,80945.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L-35.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.