Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8faa600e7aa11f0c1e25b168a914b110b99c77c5e74db55b180726480676c5b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 1,690$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 695.93$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.42 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 644.32$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.13 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 29c | 499.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 462.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 11c | 351.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 30c | 314.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.09 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 304.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 13c | 263.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 260.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 257$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 24c | 233.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 12c | 226.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 13c | 221.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 7c | 209.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 198.5$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 76c | 185.86$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 6c | 184$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 27c | 176.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 155.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 72c | 152.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 148.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 146.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…e4e2backed Yes | 29c | 137.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 22c | 126.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 9c | 122.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 22c | 104.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 29c | 104.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 104$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 87.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 77.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 72.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 21c | 71.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 29c | 70.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 78c | 68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 66.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 65.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 59.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 56.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 54.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 52.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 49.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 49.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 26c | 49.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 71c | 47.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 79c | 39.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 72c | 30.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…6f94backed No | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 73c | 26.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 70c | 24.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 68c | 17.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 80c | 15.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 78c | 13.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.