Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a78978de5a8765d2388860b4f4c761d29656cfe97fc2ac7125bbd593c86403a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 2,933$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 35c | 2,588$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 23c | 1,795$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.52 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 20c | 491.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 487.4$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 449.44$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 428.39$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 400$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 76c | 358.59$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 18c | 348.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 20c | 347.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 77c | 347.05$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 329.1$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 17c | 311.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 281.48$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 226.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked No | 60c | 224.53$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 219.52$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 201.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 194.35$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 79c | 193.2$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 191.23$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 21c | 179.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 21c | 175.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 57c | 165.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 16c | 147$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 77c | 144$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 76c | 132.15$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 17c | 128.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 126.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 21c | 119.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 39c | 117.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8d…f736backed Yes | 27c | 111.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 56c | 109.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 109.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 108.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 21c | 108.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 54c | 104.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 103.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 21c | 103.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 101.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 97.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 69c | 96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 79c | 87.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…8d6ebacked No | 77c | 78.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 69c | 74.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 19c | 69.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 78c | 67.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 22c | 66.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 35c | 65.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 65.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 23c | 63.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 58.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 77c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 56.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 25c | 54.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 54.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 21c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 45.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 27c | 45.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 28c | 41.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 76c | 39.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 27c | 39.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 29c | 36.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 63c | 36.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 34.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 45c | 34.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 29c | 34.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 67c | 28.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 59c | 28.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 40c | 26.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…2213backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 52c | 24.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 78c | 21.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 77c | 21.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 80c | 21.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…51bbbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.