Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9730e63e6ca2ecea9c22ca21838b324de219ab8e5504c35bb4d7d1fa8038477
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 50c | 1,394$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.11 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 670.77$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 551.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 504.32$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.61 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 457.65$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 7c | 434.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 406.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 344$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.73 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 14c | 326.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 39c | 320.95$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.11 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 45c | 307.2$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.89 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 35c | 305.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 303.94$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 286.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 63c | 274.4$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 264.61$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 60c | 261.08$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.71 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 5c | 234.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 45c | 228$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.92 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 71c | 213$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 192.38$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 8c | 178.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 174.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 48c | 173.86$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 46c | 173.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 171.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 161.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 160.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 44c | 152.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 33c | 151.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 55c | 149.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 49c | 143.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 44c | 139.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked No | 57c | 139.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 46c | 134.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 129.28$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 28c | 125.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 45c | 122.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 117.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 45c | 114.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 39c | 114.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 53c | 112$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…e4e2backed Yes | 45c | 109.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 65c | 106.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 56c | 104.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 18c | 100.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 56c | 94.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 51c | 93.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 15c | 92.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 92.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 44c | 91.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 45c | 89.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 83.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 41c | 79.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 56c | 75.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8d…f736backed Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 56c | 68.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 44c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 44c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 62.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 46c | 60.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 59.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 35c | 59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 55c | 54.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 58c | 54.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 53c | 52.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 59c | 50.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe7…eb63backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 36c | 47.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 48c | 43.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 41c | 42.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 40.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 38c | 39.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 48c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…fbe4backed Yes | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 53c | 35.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 43c | 35.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 43c | 35.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 65c | 34.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 33.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 47c | 30.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 51c | 29.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.