World Politics · resolved market
Will Carolina Tohá win the Chilean presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x908fc84fb388677094cbcd55dc0058cd0feaad6647da265d514ab31a0c526a99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $407,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $407,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0cd…3be3backed No | 75c | 50,424$37,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,606 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e81…9f59backed Yes | 25c | 50,424$12,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,606 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 21,218$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…d40dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…cddfbacked Yes | 0c | 17,455$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…c057backed Yes | 0c | 11,367$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d92…a624backed Yes | 16c | 5,618$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked Yes | 12c | 5,025$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b84…ce7abacked Yes | 15c | 3,439$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1,487.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc0…c9e8backed Yes | 14c | 3,053$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…f911backed Yes | 15c | 2,081$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,758$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…fa5ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,605$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 7c | 1,545$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.94 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 14c | 1,331$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.02 | 134 | 13.4%18 W · 116 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…7201backed Yes | 16c | 1,215$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 12c | 961.65$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.48 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 942.01$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.63 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…51a1backed Yes | 16c | 779.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d2…bef2backed Yes | 12c | 762.6$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…e448backed Yes | 13c | 750$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…e1b0backed Yes | 14c | 715.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…48e5backed Yes | 15c | 669.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +154.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 12c | 618.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 13c | 611.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7f…4500backed Yes | 10c | 556.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…0704backed Yes | 11c | 538.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 14c | 508.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 14c | 500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 12c | 493.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 11c | 457.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 4c | 446.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cb…9dafbacked Yes | 13c | 405.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…792ebacked Yes | 10c | 399.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…a552backed Yes | 25c | 392.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…69ffbacked Yes | 25c | 390$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6c…edddbacked No | 75c | 390$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…e1c3backed Yes | 3c | 372$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d66…a385backed Yes | 11c | 352.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 17c | 323.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…0cf2backed Yes | 31c | 321.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +855%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes | 11c | 295.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…229dbacked Yes | 20c | 252.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc679…4914backed Yes | 10c | 249.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…dd67backed Yes | 9c | 226$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…f5b7backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +622.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc14c…b5a8backed Yes | 13c | 179.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f5…a5ebbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 16c | 176.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 145$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40a9…5d72backed Yes | 13c | 121.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 9c | 120.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 116.74$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 75c | 112.87$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 76c | 100.76$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…cac2backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 75c | 55.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carolina Tohá win the Chilean presidential election?this page
- Will Alberto Undurraga win the Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Eduardo Artés win the Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Francesca Muñoz win the Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Félix González win the Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Harold Mayne-Nicholls win the Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Jaime Mulet win the Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?Yes won
- Will Marco Enríquez-Ominami win the Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Michelle Bachelet win the Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Ximena Rincón win the Chilean presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.