WNBA · resolved market

Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92185b2de997b756f5d3c9f13e22ffae6006840178f556a5ac4234967046f711

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Dallas Wingsof New York Liberty, Dallas Wings
Resolved: Jul 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $80,812
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $83,885

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,812 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in WNBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Dallas Wings	51c	16,818$8,630 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,188.06	1,787	51.7%924 W · 863 L	+54.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed New York Liberty	51c	15,539$8,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,000	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed New York Liberty	51c	10,000$5,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,099.97	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed New York Liberty	51c	8,060$4,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,082.82	367	54%198 W · 169 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Dallas Wings	48c	7,405$3,554 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,850.62	796	48.7%388 W · 408 L	+6.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Dallas Wings	51c	6,000$3,048 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,951.86	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Dallas Wings	49c	4,937$2,419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,517.73	279	49.1%137 W · 142 L	+7.5wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed New York Liberty	44c	4,429$1,949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,948.55	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	-6.7wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Dallas Wings	49c	4,000$1,960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,040	59	33.9%20 W · 39 L	-6.9wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed New York Liberty	52c	3,942$2,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,050	72	36.1%26 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked New York Liberty	49c	3,147$1,553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,553.12	179	46.4%83 W · 96 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Liberty	46c	2,824$1,290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,290.08	1,632	50.2%819 W · 813 L	+37.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Liberty	49c	2,715$1,336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,335.76	859	48.4%416 W · 443 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed New York Liberty	50c	2,519$1,260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,259.5	68	48.5%33 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed New York Liberty	51c	2,351$1,199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.13	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-6.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd51…1041backed Dallas Wings	47c	2,208$1,042 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,166.31	47	63.8%30 W · 17 L	+5.5wins	+0.12per pick	52cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Dallas Wings	51c	1,964$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$964.31	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+3.8wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc62…c963backed Dallas Wings	49c	1,742$854 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$888.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Dallas Wings	49c	1,572$770 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$801.74	394	50.5%199 W · 195 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Dallas Wings	51c	1,470$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$720.45	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x330b…6e60backed Dallas Wings	50c	892.8$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$442.8	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Dallas Wings	49c	800$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408.5	98	51%50 W · 48 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Dallas Wings	48c	786.78$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$409.13	1,012	47.9%485 W · 527 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Dallas Wings	52c	700$364 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336	145	41.4%60 W · 85 L	-10.1wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-16%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Dallas Wings	49c	684.67$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$347.58	932	48.8%455 W · 477 L	+9.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a6…71bdbacked New York Liberty	49c	646.54$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.91	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71bc…7fe4backed Dallas Wings	49c	612.24$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.24	149	48.3%72 W · 77 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03c6…3dd2backed New York Liberty	49c	612.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.7wins	+0.19per pick	52cpaid	+36.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Dallas Wings	48c	500$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x70a6…a2ebbacked New York Liberty	52c	500$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa106…5abbbacked Dallas Wings	48c	404.6$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.39	38	81.6%31 W · 7 L	+11.1wins	+0.29per pick	52cpaid	+56.6%equal weight	70+0.18 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New York Liberty	50c	322.65$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.37	904	49.4%447 W · 457 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Dallas Wings	49c	300$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154	402	47.3%190 W · 212 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d28…0d64backed New York Liberty	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	54	37%20 W · 34 L	-5.8wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1636…977bbacked New York Liberty	52c	250$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39b6…306dbacked Dallas Wings	49c	244.9$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.9	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+3.5wins	+0.39per pick	50cpaid	+77%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed New York Liberty	42c	239.97$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.79	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Dallas Wings	48c	235.5$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.3	58	56.9%33 W · 25 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed New York Liberty	49c	224.67$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.09	179	46.9%84 W · 95 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed New York Liberty	49c	224.51$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.01	712	45.4%323 W · 389 L	-19.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Dallas Wings	51c	223$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.27	164	50%82 W · 82 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Liberty	51c	210$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.1	333	47.7%159 W · 174 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf836…f39cbacked New York Liberty	50c	206.11$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.15	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Dallas Wings	51c	189.99$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.1	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b5d…7501backed Dallas Wings	53c	155.96$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.43	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Dallas Wings	56c	151.41$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.09	181	57.5%104 W · 77 L	+13.7wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked Dallas Wings	47c	140.94$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.11	90	42.2%38 W · 52 L	-8.4wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed New York Liberty	44c	120.56$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.05	246	56.5%139 W · 107 L	+6.6wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed New York Liberty	15c	118.25$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.13	122	16.4%20 W · 102 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Dallas Wings	49c	117$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.67	136	49.3%67 W · 69 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Dallas Wings	47c	109.04$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.79	332	48.8%162 W · 170 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a0…a986backed New York Liberty	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	60cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9f5…0688backed New York Liberty	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	61	45.9%28 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed New York Liberty	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Dallas Wings	49c	95.93$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.03	144	45.1%65 W · 79 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Dallas Wings	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	627	46.9%294 W · 333 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x193b…f6ecbacked Dallas Wings	50c	65.4$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.7	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked New York Liberty	56c	64.29$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c7…eca3backed Dallas Wings	49c	61.22$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.22	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-3.4wins	-0.28per pick	53cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Dallas Wings	52c	55.27$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.33	147	51%75 W · 72 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5998…b5a8backed New York Liberty	54c	55.17$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.79	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.35per pick	52cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x097c…630abacked Dallas Wings	49c	51.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.02	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Dallas Wings	49c	47.91$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	123	59.3%73 W · 50 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58ac…7636backed Dallas Wings	47c	41.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.21	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe733…f6c9backed New York Liberty	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Dallas Wings	49c	40.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.74	260	54.6%142 W · 118 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked New York Liberty	51c	39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.75	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Dallas Wings	47c	34$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.02	105	43.8%46 W · 59 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked New York Liberty	46c	30.52$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	65cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8d5…1995backed New York Liberty	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed New York Liberty	50c	28.73$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	143	50.3%72 W · 71 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Dallas Wings	49c	21.98$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.21	74	70.3%52 W · 22 L	+9.6wins	+0.13per pick	57cpaid	+23%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Dallas Wings	50c	20.68$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.34	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed New York Liberty	51c	20.39$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…c7a2backed Dallas Wings	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	60	55%33 W · 27 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc185…7020backed Dallas Wings	75c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.82	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5)this page
New York Liberty vs. Dallas WingsNew York Liberty won
New York Liberty vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 172.5Over won
New York Liberty vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 174.5Over won
New York Liberty vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 175.5Over won
New York Liberty vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5Over won
Paige Bueckers: Assists O/U 6.5No won
Paige Bueckers: Points O/U 22.5No won
Paige Bueckers: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Spread: New York Liberty (-1.5)Dallas Wings won
Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5)Dallas Wings won
Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5)Dallas Wings won
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5)Dallas Wings won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event