TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 232.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,097
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,951

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,097 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Over52c2,786$1,446 inWon+$1,339.772,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over50c2,266$1,133 inWon+$1,132.822,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under50c1,201$600 inLost-$600.4340451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Under53c1,100$583 inLost-$58345146.1%208 W · 243 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under45c1,062$476 inLost-$475.541,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under52c853.47$441 inLost-$441.271,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under50c717.8$359 inLost-$358.995452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under50c271$134 inLost-$134.222,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over47c242.05$114 inWon+$128.2961638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c212.46$106 inWon+$106.239,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over50c200$100 inWon+$10078652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdbe…e45bbacked Under50c116.4$58 inLost-$58.25843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x45b5…2d74backed Under50c116.05$58 inLost-$58.036543.1%28 W · 37 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Over50c74.91$37 inWon+$37.461,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under49c69$34 inLost-$33.81,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Over51c66.84$34 inWon+$32.7544347.2%209 W · 234 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over51c66.84$34 inWon+$32.751,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Over51c66.84$34 inWon+$32.7536852.2%192 W · 176 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Over51c66.84$34 inWon+$32.7557051.9%296 W · 274 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Under50c65.82$33 inLost-$32.9116653.6%89 W · 77 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad9d…9b95backed Under49c54.4$27 inLost-$26.6527548.7%134 W · 141 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed Over52c52.33$27 inWon+$24.9415353.6%82 W · 71 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Under50c48.5$24 inLost-$24.2511850.8%60 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Over51c47.58$24 inWon+$23.3132450.3%163 W · 161 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1f…acafbacked Over51c47.58$24 inWon+$23.315060%30 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a3b…a99fbacked Under50c45.25$23 inLost-$22.796648.5%32 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Under50c38.8$19 inLost-$19.456454.3%306 W · 258 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0095…42c1backed Over51c38.06$19 inWon+$18.6521952.5%115 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3f1…382ebacked Under50c31.92$16 inLost-$15.96450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x792a…7364backed Under50c29.1$15 inLost-$14.5521649.1%106 W · 110 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.