NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc192961a15a302cb5944c0054e87f2ffc7e51ec7ecf446c22a08df7cb33e2d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x144e…eca0backed Over | 61c | 5,570$3,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150.64 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 40c | 2,663$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.3 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49d…ff91backed Over | 52c | 2,550$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.23 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 1,758$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.37 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,393$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.3 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 34c | 1,386$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.35 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 38c | 1,377$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.61 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 37c | 1,355$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.47 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 66c | 1,132$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.96 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Over | 48c | 1,007$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.5 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 48c | 999.97$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2a…30edbacked Over | 52c | 988.01$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.25 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -9.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…a1b0backed Under | 52c | 971.2$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.02 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 48c | 884.64$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.63 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 15c | 876.82$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.82 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 53c | 729.5$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.86 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 23c | 715.44$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.59 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 44c | 655.05$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.93 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 37c | 453.3$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.72 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 443.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.56 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Under | 51c | 399.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 44c | 358.59$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.59 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…c8ffbacked Over | 52c | 291.36$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.85 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…4b4cbacked Under | 51c | 291.12$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9465…3a00backed Over | 51c | 291.11$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…f5bdbacked Under | 48c | 282$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 43c | 254.26$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.86 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 205.61$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Over | 51c | 194.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.17 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -9.5wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 52c | 191.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Under | 40c | 183.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Under | 49c | 175$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Over | 49c | 175$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Under | 46c | 169.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 203 | 49.3%100 W · 103 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…6f10backed Over | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 160.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 51c | 134.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 126.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 122.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 26c | 105.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 50c | 98.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Under | 48c | 86.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 52c | 80.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…9805backed Over | 51c | 79.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 53c | 76.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…3fb1backed Under | 32c | 70.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 66.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Over | 52c | 63.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Under | 45c | 61.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 387 | 36.4%141 W · 246 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…aedbbacked Over | 59c | 58.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 48c | 54.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2685…8918backed Under | 51c | 45.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 56c | 42.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 319 | 53%169 W · 150 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…e029backed Under | 50c | 38.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…c3bebacked Over | 52c | 35.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +81%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 32c | 34.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Under | 37c | 30.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cf…7a0bbacked Over | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…8355backed Under | 49c | 27.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 49c | 27.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef5…316cbacked Over | 51c | 25.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4f…628ebacked Over | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 50c | 23.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b69…2161backed Over | 51c | 20.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 64c | 19.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | -11.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Over | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…0d39backed Over | 60c | 18.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 70c | 16.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-14.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Magic (-15.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Magic (-18.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Magic (-20.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Timberwolves vs. MagicMagic won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 231.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 232.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 238.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 240.5Over won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.