TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,878
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$110,202

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,878 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84db…aeebbacked Timberwolves44c54,651$24,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,231.561,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Magic56c34,920$19,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,368.386043.3%26 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Timberwolves46c20,000$9,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,199.9549244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic54c10,518$5,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,815.899,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Magic52c6,169$3,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.1537355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x144e…eca0backed Timberwolves48c5,428$2,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,605.447451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic54c4,810$2,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,228.14,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Timberwolves42c3,938$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.051,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Magic55c3,045$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.121,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Magic55c3,024$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.8363746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Magic55c2,744$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.931,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Magic55c2,744$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.9390650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Magic55c2,744$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.9329849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Magic55c2,661$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.658953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Timberwolves44c2,305$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.973,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Timberwolves45c2,112$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.791,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8136…772cbacked Magic57c1,948$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.812240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Magic61c1,772$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.22,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Timberwolves42c1,732$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.172,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Magic55c1,717$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.8171654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Magic49c1,439$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.981,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Magic55c1,415$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.8741753.2%222 W · 195 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Timberwolves28c1,357$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.631,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Magic57c1,218$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.6370246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Timberwolves48c1,100$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.995427.8%15 W · 39 L-9.5wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-44.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5bca…0d11backed Magic54c1,017$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.9310252.9%54 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Timberwolves45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-47.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic52c974.76$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.892,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Timberwolves46c960.89$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.611,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Timberwolves51c950.49$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.751,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Timberwolves46c920.94$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.141,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Magic54c893.87$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.1842352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Timberwolves48c858.99$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.3113946.8%65 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Magic55c707.64$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.4422047.3%104 W · 116 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic58c620.2$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.486,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74a9…0dc7backed Magic54c540.22$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.59455.3%52 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Magic54c493.4$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.9736248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd7…eac9backed Timberwolves43c458.76$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.265440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Timberwolves45c400$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17868645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Timberwolves44c399.99$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.481349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Timberwolves49c395.67$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.8826755.1%147 W · 120 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Magic54c360.15$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.6751647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Magic55c353.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2261151.4%314 W · 297 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…86dbbacked Magic55c353.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2211648.3%56 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Magic55c353.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2223445.7%107 W · 127 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Magic55c353.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2213153.4%70 W · 61 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Timberwolves25c342.78$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1326337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ba…0bc3backed Timberwolves45c333.32$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9915650.6%79 W · 77 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Magic52c329.38$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.522,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Timberwolves41c307.32$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.071,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bef…3afdbacked Timberwolves43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1295650%28 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Magic51c293.6$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.132,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Magic58c279.41$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3516242.6%69 W · 93 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Magic54c262.84$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.771,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…763bbacked Timberwolves46c260.84$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9933748.1%162 W · 175 L-1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Magic56c232.28$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.281,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Timberwolves47c206$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8215055.3%83 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aef…f8dfbacked Timberwolves49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986637.9%25 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Magic58c194.96$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8833360.4%201 W · 132 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Magic52c194.24$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2425550.2%128 W · 127 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb69…c773backed Magic54c180.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8313148.9%64 W · 67 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Magic54c178.49$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2253348.4%258 W · 275 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Magic55c176.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6144347.2%209 W · 234 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Magic55c176.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6157051.9%296 W · 274 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Timberwolves49c166.36$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5244740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Magic49c165.51$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0493543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Timberwolves51c161.77$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.524849.6%123 W · 125 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Magic51c155.33$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5689850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Magic55c141.53$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6936852.2%192 W · 176 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89dc…8f42backed Magic54c135.06$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.139154.9%50 W · 41 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15bb…2033backed Magic54c134.5$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5610345.6%47 W · 56 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Timberwolves48c117.06$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1981845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Timberwolves45c116.1$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2537845%170 W · 208 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b2…2e80backed Timberwolves48c104.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6515855.7%88 W · 70 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic53c99.84$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.921,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Magic54c99.04$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5635546.5%165 W · 190 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc11…c87bbacked Magic58c97.48$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.941560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Magic54c96.24$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5731953%169 W · 150 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Magic54c90.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4213153.4%70 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Magic55c88.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.832450.3%163 W · 161 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1f…acafbacked Magic55c88.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.85060%30 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x231f…254bbacked Magic55c88.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.89848%47 W · 51 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…7f73backed Magic57c85.46$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.753857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Timberwolves45c82.95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3337647.3%178 W · 198 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Timberwolves49c76.23$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3537848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x384d…d538backed Magic50c69$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5741…fb99backed Magic74c64.08$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8410945.9%50 W · 59 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Timberwolves46c62.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.615,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed Timberwolves47c61.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0513342.9%57 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Timberwolves47c60.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5121951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Magic54c58.34$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8420558.5%120 W · 85 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8706…e77ebacked Magic52c57.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f68…bcd8backed Timberwolves49c56.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.55450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Magic54c55.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.681,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Magic55c53.07$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8837853.4%202 W · 176 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Timberwolves37c51.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.441,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x5b56…9100backed Timberwolves48c50.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.224841.7%20 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Timberwolves46c46.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4238751.2%198 W · 189 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd41…5afebacked Magic54c45.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.714854.2%26 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed Timberwolves41c43.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6115353.6%82 W · 71 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.