TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 240.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,026
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,026 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa0dc…586cbacked Under57c1,367$779 inLost-$779.3628838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Under23c1,235$288 inLost-$287.6926337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under17c983.85$167 inLost-$167.0952230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over43c939.76$404 inWon+$535.669,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under23c395.17$92 inLost-$91.81,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Under52c330$172 inLost-$171.626745.3%121 W · 146 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed Over48c288.65$138 inWon+$150.9515353.6%82 W · 71 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over16c264.94$42 inWon+$222.5534255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Over16c237.4$38 inWon+$199.4227937.3%104 W · 175 L+57.6wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+187%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x7747…7cf2backed Over16c131.88$21 inWon+$110.782626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over16c130.36$21 inWon+$109.527463.5%174 W · 100 L+34.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Over47c84.05$40 inWon+$44.5549247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Over47c84.05$40 inWon+$44.5540750.6%206 W · 201 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaad9…caefbacked Over47c84.03$39 inWon+$44.533246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc75…5431backed Over47c84.03$39 inWon+$44.533348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…58c9backed Over47c84.03$39 inWon+$44.533647.2%17 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08eb…9ca4backed Over16c75.03$12 inWon+$63.02933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb271…34d4backed Over50c72.26$36 inWon+$36.381283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+59.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Over16c62.73$10 inWon+$52.6927553.5%147 W · 128 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked Under18c59.69$11 inLost-$10.6346255.6%257 W · 205 L+22.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd85a…1d03backed Under55c44.23$24 inLost-$24.337570.7%53 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x792a…7364backed Over47c31$15 inWon+$16.4821649.1%106 W · 110 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Under49c30$15 inLost-$14.778639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1c9…748cbacked Under76c25.79$20 inLost-$19.721275%9 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+36%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31c8…9487backed Over51c21.47$11 inWon+$10.56277.4%48 W · 14 L+13.1wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+36.3%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.