NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5eed65fcaab31acd6d7644363726751a12458d10f7c358f8ecb6eb714c0bf429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4db6…6ea4backed Over | 69c | 3,952$2,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 33c | 3,858$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.52 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 23c | 872.59$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.72 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 8c | 683.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 54c | 641.78$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.22 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Under | 46c | 629.1$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.33 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Over | 78c | 551.27$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.39 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 12c | 548.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 11c | 534.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 31c | 385.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 30c | 332.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 32c | 328.13$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.41 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5e…1a04backed Over | 65c | 301.04$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.23 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Over | 66c | 298.59$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.71 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 33c | 291.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…5107backed Over | 76c | 289.17$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 20c | 239.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 13c | 236.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 35c | 204.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Under | 22c | 177.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed Under | 14c | 158.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59f…2e59backed Under | 11c | 139.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Under | 14c | 121.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 240 | 44.6%107 W · 133 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 41c | 113.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…685cbacked Over | 76c | 98.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 125 | 58.4%73 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Under | 14c | 82.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 39c | 60.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 75c | 36.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 50c | 35.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…27b4backed Over | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 40c | 31.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 211 | 47.4%100 W · 111 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2c…d5cdbacked Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 52c | 29.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…d490backed Over | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…2c88backed Over | 59c | 26.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Under | 45c | 26.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…aedbbacked Over | 80c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb7…3f4bbacked Under | 42c | 25.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…73debacked Over | 57c | 24.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2279…a3a2backed Over | 58c | 24.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f05…729fbacked Under | 42c | 24.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 64c | 23.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…a984backed Over | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…e247backed Over | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 75c | 21.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999e…9d17backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ede…8b89backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4615…e3d3backed Over | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d1…c15ebacked Over | 66c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-14.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Magic (-15.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Magic (-18.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Magic (-20.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Timberwolves vs. MagicMagic won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 231.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 232.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 238.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 240.5Over won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.