TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,912
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,857

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,912 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Timberwolves45c2,878$1,298 inLost-$1,297.961,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic53c1,593$844 inWon+$748.849,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Magic50c400$202 inWon+$198.072,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Magic55c304.32$167 inWon+$136.941,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Magic55c303.56$167 inWon+$136.1790650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Magic56c299.07$167 inWon+$131.591,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Magic52c225.87$117 inWon+$108.8589850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Timberwolves51c134.49$69 inLost-$68.6440750.6%206 W · 201 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaad9…caefbacked Timberwolves53c129.65$69 inLost-$68.723246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc75…5431backed Timberwolves53c129.65$69 inLost-$68.723348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…58c9backed Timberwolves53c129.65$69 inLost-$68.723647.2%17 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Magic50c110$55 inWon+$55.451,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Timberwolves51c108.38$55 inLost-$55.3326545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Magic55c97.37$54 inWon+$43.8242352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Magic55c88.45$49 inWon+$39.865349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Magic55c88.45$49 inWon+$39.857051.9%296 W · 274 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Timberwolves48c50.46$24 inLost-$24.2212845.3%58 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Timberwolves50c48.5$24 inLost-$24.253,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53cd…11b3backed Timberwolves49c47.5$23 inLost-$23.289139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Magic56c43.46$24 inWon+$19.1232450.3%163 W · 161 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Timberwolves52c28.59$15 inLost-$14.8749247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Magic55c28.22$16 inWon+$12.71,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Magic56c26.08$15 inWon+$11.4737853.4%202 W · 176 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Magic58c22.42$13 inWon+$9.4210447.1%49 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Timberwolves46c21.74$10 inLost-$1010348.5%50 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.