TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,780
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,879

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,780 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Timberwolves35c4,990$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.4687144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a1a…e54ebacked Magic65c3,464$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.456058.3%35 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves45c3,040$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.666,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf29…834cbacked Magic59c2,719$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.2312646%58 W · 68 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Magic61c2,253$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.9921957.1%125 W · 94 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked Magic55c1,539$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.5414441%59 W · 85 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves42c1,201$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.049,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033d…fd1ebacked Magic54c1,167$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.7610252%53 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Timberwolves47c1,100$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5178948.3%43 W · 46 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Timberwolves31c1,034$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.4968838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb74…997cbacked Timberwolves46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Timberwolves31c825.08$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.772,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Timberwolves32c815.13$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.283,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Magic53c702.26$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.0674748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves43c696.02$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.144,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b62…728abacked Magic57c684.83$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.3811556.5%65 W · 50 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Magic60c535.14$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.061,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Timberwolves37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18579650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Magic57c446.08$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.8147651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Magic53c432.74$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.671,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0439…3f80backed Timberwolves36c396.66$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.88742.5%37 W · 50 L-7.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Magic53c366.72$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.361,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Timberwolves38c355.63$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13410447.1%49 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Timberwolves39c348.39$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5781349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Timberwolves43c342.31$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6665045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Magic70c313.13$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1718452.7%97 W · 87 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Magic67c273.07$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.951,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3c…9320backed Magic70c257.4$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2225360.1%152 W · 101 L+26.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Timberwolves40c252.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.251,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Timberwolves40c202.16$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.261,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Magic57c197.22$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.844345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Timberwolves21c182.12$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.581,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Timberwolves42c170.95$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.81,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Timberwolves47c164.8$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4621843.6%95 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Timberwolves43c150$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6553339.6%211 W · 322 L-39.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4df2…d357backed Magic70c140.29$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.097659.2%45 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d95…2342backed Magic70c140.29$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.097250%36 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic59c136.72$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.374,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Magic51c122.45$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6042853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac94…e414backed Timberwolves42c119.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.133234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf793…6265backed Timberwolves49c118.7$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.163557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Timberwolves46c108.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.911,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Magic65c107.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6990957.6%524 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f6c…df05backed Magic54c106.96$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.27256.9%41 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdbe…e45bbacked Timberwolves39c98.34$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.555843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Magic61c97.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0936359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Magic56c97.36$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8435546.5%165 W · 190 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Magic55c92.44$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.61,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Timberwolves32c91.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.011,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x28ad…9805backed Timberwolves46c80$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.822942.8%98 W · 131 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04f2…a638backed Magic65c75.31$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.361464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7793…33a6backed Timberwolves41c72.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8929344.4%130 W · 163 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Timberwolves43c69.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8634641%142 W · 204 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Magic55c67.12$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8749249.8%245 W · 247 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa77f…6039backed Timberwolves46c63.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.352944.8%13 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Timberwolves32c62.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8878648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb700…5a62backed Magic65c60.21$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0717660.8%107 W · 69 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Magic58c58.12$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2985248.9%417 W · 435 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25c5…8581backed Magic68c57.69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.463557.1%20 W · 15 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeac9…4092backed Magic61c56.45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2720554.6%112 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a3…8278backed Magic65c54.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.983351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71f6…8804backed Timberwolves36c53.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.235151%26 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Timberwolves38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8393543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Timberwolves39c46.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2920240.1%81 W · 121 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8de…a2b8backed Timberwolves35c46.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.143933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa662…4823backed Timberwolves43c44.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.321764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+23.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1be5…9d53backed Magic68c43.27$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.857657.9%44 W · 32 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18c2…54adbacked Timberwolves47c41.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.361553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b2…2e80backed Magic60c39.04$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6215855.7%88 W · 70 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Magic65c37.65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1840853.7%219 W · 189 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f98…ec35backed Timberwolves44c35.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.710046%46 W · 54 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Magic56c35.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5193145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f74…4adabacked Magic59c33.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5610850.9%55 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x792a…7364backed Timberwolves47c30.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5221649.1%106 W · 110 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65d8…bac6backed Magic65c29.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4638350.4%193 W · 190 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x091a…db09backed Magic68c28.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.233177.4%24 W · 7 L+7.6wins+0.24per pick53cpaid+37%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x75e2…2ed0backed Magic68c28.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2311060%66 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd226…38b4backed Timberwolves41c26.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7539448.7%192 W · 202 L-1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Magic59c24.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.934953%185 W · 164 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05be…d651backed Magic65c16.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.813151.9%68 W · 63 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.