TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Robert Bryczek vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cam Rowstonof Robert Bryczek, Cam Rowston
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$579,487
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$639,925

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $579,487 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x689c…6b1ebacked Robert Bryczek0c283,465$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.833946.2%18 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Cam Rowston67c50,968$34,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,837.91442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Robert Bryczek55c45,500$25,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,139.956045%27 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54d2…ac37backed Robert Bryczek33c29,787$9,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,835.631346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+46.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cam Rowston65c27,769$18,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,736.3215444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8ca…cccbbacked Cam Rowston45c17,705$7,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,781.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+62.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d6e…5cfdbacked Cam Rowston62c15,356$9,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,835.43650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Robert Bryczek35c11,740$4,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,074.2913452.2%70 W · 64 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Robert Bryczek35c10,805$3,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,773.842250%11 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Cam Rowston63c8,500$5,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1452142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Robert Bryczek34c8,057$2,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,758.5829133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Cam Rowston69c7,500$5,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,32520954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Robert Bryczek36c5,303$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.921952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Cam Rowston46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Robert Bryczek37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.9912052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Robert Bryczek28c4,961$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.464957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Cam Rowston46c4,723$2,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,554.9390553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Cam Rowston64c4,495$2,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,634.892941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Robert Bryczek32c3,411$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.464839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Robert Bryczek36c3,263$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.1426743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked Robert Bryczek31c3,014$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.333943.6%17 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Robert Bryczek38c2,620$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.66845.6%31 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Robert Bryczek33c2,245$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.7410255.9%57 W · 45 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbba…c191backed Robert Bryczek35c2,227$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.44887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick53cpaid+67.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x465a…c619backed Cam Rowston45c1,978$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed Robert Bryczek33c1,788$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Robert Bryczek37c1,700$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.999247.8%44 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cam Rowston63c1,667$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.7942054%227 W · 193 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Cam Rowston68c1,640$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.8330964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Robert Bryczek39c1,541$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.1315641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Cam Rowston63c1,500$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5557949.4%39 W · 40 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc31e…82cdbacked Robert Bryczek33c1,462$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed Robert Bryczek1c1,400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810650.9%54 W · 52 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed Robert Bryczek32c1,323$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.358622.1%19 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-45.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Robert Bryczek33c1,299$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.5929151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71b4…f97ebacked Robert Bryczek31c1,294$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005851.7%30 W · 28 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+192.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Cam Rowston59c1,291$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.264461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Robert Bryczek37c1,080$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.775446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Robert Bryczek31c1,043$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.3335848.3%173 W · 185 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Robert Bryczek12c1,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1157843.6%34 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ad…790cbacked Cam Rowston43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5701266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+45.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Robert Bryczek32c991.44$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.228043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Robert Bryczek31c957.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014132.6%46 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Cam Rowston63c952.38$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.3810253.9%55 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Robert Bryczek37c912.97$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.552934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2258…0eecbacked Cam Rowston67c910.45$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.452254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Cam Rowston62c900$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3422065%13 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Robert Bryczek11c897.08$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4733132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Cam Rowston61c820$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.8153956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Robert Bryczek33c816.4$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.4136745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Robert Bryczek37c787$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.197159.2%42 W · 29 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfccc…d978backed Robert Bryczek33c757.58$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd8c…f75abacked Cam Rowston67c746.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.272751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93cb…32c0backed Robert Bryczek32c676.2$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.382630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Robert Bryczek37c636.9$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.535349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Robert Bryczek34c599.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2046732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Robert Bryczek26c574.45$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.773253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Cam Rowston64c562.5$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.256246.8%29 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Robert Bryczek39c557.68$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.0713144.3%58 W · 73 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Cam Rowston67c555$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.154353.5%23 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Cam Rowston68c551.47$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.4710270.6%72 W · 30 L+10.5wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+11.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Cam Rowston69c503.01$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.281866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x997d…decfbacked Cam Rowston68c500.43$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.281752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Robert Bryczek31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1559949.5%49 W · 50 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c4…0734backed Robert Bryczek2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x429e…41bdbacked Cam Rowston62c484.16$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.981275%9 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Cam Rowston65c459.12$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.986254.8%34 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Cam Rowston60c440.94$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.745156.9%29 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Robert Bryczek29c438.97$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.064643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Cam Rowston60c431.58$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.4110664.2%68 W · 38 L+13.7wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa159…ac8ebacked Robert Bryczek35c428.57$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58db…6901backed Robert Bryczek36c414.67$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd594…98c4backed Robert Bryczek33c410$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.38851.1%45 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Robert Bryczek34c401.71$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13517841.6%74 W · 104 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae1…bbedbacked Robert Bryczek36c400.67$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.242040%8 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff9d…af7cbacked Cam Rowston60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1604259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5df…0f22backed Robert Bryczek33c399.96$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.995851.7%30 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac65…cfe6backed Cam Rowston65c398.6$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.515463%34 W · 20 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ce…63bbbacked Robert Bryczek33c393.94$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd578…a365backed Robert Bryczek40c385.17$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.962133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-39.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a57…7615backed Cam Rowston68c368.53$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.531464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4787…6de9backed Robert Bryczek40c358.45$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Robert Bryczek37c349.98$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4926140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Robert Bryczek34c345.9$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11951533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Cam Rowston63c314.27$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.284639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed Cam Rowston59c309.61$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.293661.1%22 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xadec…3c7bbacked Robert Bryczek33c306.15$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.033839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f75…d3fbbacked Cam Rowston66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.031758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f84…be62backed Robert Bryczek4c288.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda79…daecbacked Robert Bryczek37c287.5$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8518440.8%75 W · 109 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Robert Bryczek34c286$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.842850%14 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c1a…8917backed Robert Bryczek40c284.12$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Cam Rowston61c278.69$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.691553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Robert Bryczek34c277.41$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.933237.5%12 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad1f…f762backed Robert Bryczek40c261.17$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7465…caa8backed Cam Rowston78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4118160.8%110 W · 71 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Cam Rowston60c253$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.287859%46 W · 32 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Cam Rowston65c250.82$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.797068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Cam Rowston63c250$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.536655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Cam Rowston67c250$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.548749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.