TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

National Bank Open: Carol Zhao vs Magda Linette

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magda Linetteof Carol Zhao, Magda Linette
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$187,958
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$197,905

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,958 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa0f2…1848backed Carol Zhao26c11,958$3,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,136.691,40442.8%601 W · 803 L-31.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Carol Zhao13c9,742$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.6611,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Carol Zhao22c7,711$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.269,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Carol Zhao12c6,186$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.081,51224.1%364 W · 1,148 L-41.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Carol Zhao10c3,798$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.034,25345%1,912 W · 2,341 L+20.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7e2a…d25cbacked Carol Zhao16c3,018$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.7913549.6%67 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d24…f379backed Carol Zhao14c2,656$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.7937853.4%202 W · 176 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Magda Linette61c2,650$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.51,16144.3%514 W · 647 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162d…8944backed Carol Zhao11c2,278$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26113134.4%45 W · 86 L+13.5wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Carol Zhao10c1,834$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.034,34152.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L+63.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…7137backed Carol Zhao19c1,833$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3403855.3%21 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa55a…9811backed Carol Zhao23c1,808$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.333345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77d5…732ebacked Carol Zhao19c1,786$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.535354.4%192 W · 161 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Carol Zhao34c1,765$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60033137.2%123 W · 208 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7179…987ebacked Carol Zhao20c1,643$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3352222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6319…d371backed Carol Zhao32c1,570$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.43056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Carol Zhao11c1,556$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.7110531.4%33 W · 72 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x712f…568cbacked Magda Linette74c1,281$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Magda Linette72c1,191$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.379,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb00…2f38backed Carol Zhao8c1,148$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…661abacked Carol Zhao40c1,040$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.141216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Carol Zhao9c992$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.283537.1%13 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-38.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Carol Zhao11c982.36$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.446,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Magda Linette69c958.12$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.633,71145.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a4…4917backed Carol Zhao10c911.39$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923735.1%13 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Magda Linette74c906.1$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.838066.3%252 W · 128 L-0.7wins0.00per pick67cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Carol Zhao29c900$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26174654.8%409 W · 337 L+46.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Magda Linette61c840.79$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.9175543.4%328 W · 427 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Carol Zhao12c825.56$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.998,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Carol Zhao9c779.42$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.74,97538.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L-19.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Carol Zhao11c769.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4736434.3%125 W · 239 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e9c…1fcabacked Carol Zhao41c610.07$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508447.6%40 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50b9…4467backed Carol Zhao13c600$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7838033.9%129 W · 251 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf96d…20bebacked Carol Zhao9c583.44$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5148214.1%68 W · 414 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Carol Zhao9c564.76$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.091,2078%96 W · 1,111 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Carol Zhao16c527.59$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.933,15557.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L+176.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac36…b1e1backed Magda Linette61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19513245.5%60 W · 72 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Carol Zhao11c499.54$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9536838.3%141 W · 227 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Carol Zhao8c403$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.243,31948.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L-52.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe004…d87cbacked Magda Linette79c379.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7515060%90 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Carol Zhao8c375.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3031936.4%116 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Carol Zhao8c365.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.271,75449.1%862 W · 892 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b3…49f8backed Carol Zhao15c337$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0119835.4%70 W · 128 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f8…df87backed Carol Zhao19c309.35$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7815550.3%78 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b34…a646backed Magda Linette66c303.84$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.843540%14 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x25f7…b16dbacked Carol Zhao40c237.5$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9528754.7%157 W · 130 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68b6…99b4backed Carol Zhao18c232$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7614653.4%78 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Carol Zhao17c228.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.91,07654.8%590 W · 486 L+14.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec3…e330backed Magda Linette61c225.74$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0443947.2%207 W · 232 L-1.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a1…1c2ebacked Carol Zhao23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012820.3%26 W · 102 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Carol Zhao29c206.9$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,63946.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2be…af12backed Carol Zhao8c202$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.162,03246.9%952 W · 1,080 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Carol Zhao10c201.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.26,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked Carol Zhao25c200.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5082657.1%472 W · 354 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Magda Linette72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x293c…dcbabacked Magda Linette62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7637354.2%202 W · 171 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f6…b051backed Carol Zhao25c199.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4942643.9%187 W · 239 L-1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed Carol Zhao29c179$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9125546.7%119 W · 136 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Magda Linette79c176.71$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9533363.1%210 W · 123 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1e…cbfbbacked Carol Zhao13c170.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4715149%74 W · 77 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff7…d9d4backed Carol Zhao12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025020.8%52 W · 198 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Carol Zhao8c165$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.852,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Carol Zhao29c155.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453,26240.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Carol Zhao29c155.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453,45738.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L-15.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Carol Zhao10c149.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.463537.6%239 W · 396 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Carol Zhao13c145.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196,57446.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L-45.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d9…b1b1backed Carol Zhao11c136.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551636.2%187 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed Carol Zhao16c134.66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1376355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Carol Zhao16c129.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.871,88048.5%912 W · 968 L+8.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Magda Linette76c113.17$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1650268.3%343 W · 159 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x018e…5c3dbacked Carol Zhao14c110.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510054%54 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Carol Zhao15c109.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.362,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84e5…3fedbacked Magda Linette80c107.86$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.579367.7%63 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Carol Zhao14c104$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3330132.9%99 W · 202 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Carol Zhao11c100.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68cf…e58cbacked Magda Linette61c99.98$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.997458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3556…af4fbacked Carol Zhao11c99.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9827724.9%69 W · 208 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a20…d606backed Magda Linette72c90$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.292674.6%691 W · 235 L+1.7wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Magda Linette76c89.34$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.232,83947.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Carol Zhao13c84.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.792,86849.5%1,419 W · 1,449 L+23.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3459…caa6backed Carol Zhao19c84.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1626748.7%130 W · 137 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x276a…fc66backed Magda Linette80c83.9$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.783666.7%24 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e39…fe16backed Carol Zhao20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1571621.1%151 W · 565 L-29.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cb…3bbebacked Carol Zhao40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015356.2%86 W · 67 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x279b…2365backed Carol Zhao37c67.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257237.5%27 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4a4f…32e0backed Carol Zhao33c64.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.73625%9 W · 27 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-38.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x061a…5a89backed Magda Linette60c59.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2452157%297 W · 224 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74c8…857bbacked Magda Linette67c59.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.651681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick68cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fd9…039bbacked Carol Zhao28c53.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,00938.3%386 W · 623 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb663…f135backed Carol Zhao29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1557736.7%212 W · 365 L-2.7wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed Magda Linette77c47.2$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9865259.4%387 W · 265 L+31.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Carol Zhao25c44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.181,78548.7%869 W · 916 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9527…f108backed Magda Linette68c42.08$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5853539.3%210 W · 325 L+37.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa63d…d405backed Magda Linette60c40.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.187661.8%47 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc898…a9b9backed Magda Linette80c32.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.483574.3%26 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0cc…0497backed Magda Linette80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.251471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9991…b2cebacked Magda Linette67c29.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.868159.3%48 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x341d…2995backed Magda Linette78c23.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2731161.1%190 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6e…1914backed Magda Linette67c22.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.421643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4149…ba5dbacked Magda Linette76c19.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.649260.9%56 W · 36 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.