NBA · resolved market
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6da7cc489a5c501aaed204e7d3bdaf4b3d10b6714f33dcfe3d877d720858228
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde7c…c933backed Yes | 26c | 4,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.99 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe444…fa95backed Yes | 37c | 1,326$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.78 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 75c | 1,147$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.16 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 68c | 536.42$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.52 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 11c | 464.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -11.5wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 62c | 438.64$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 74c | 366.32$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 12c | 280$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 78c | 272.97$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 221 | 40.3%89 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 260$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 250 | 45.6%114 W · 136 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 10c | 230$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 225$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 13c | 215$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 74c | 209$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 19c | 200.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 75c | 196$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 74c | 184.61$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 169.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 135.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 18c | 134.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 130.41$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 126$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 126$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 105$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 18c | 87.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663d…7d23backed Yes | 16c | 83.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 21c | 74.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…28f3backed Yes | 34c | 50.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 77c | 50.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 73c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 34.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…2838backed Yes | 31c | 32.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?this page
- Will AJ Dybantsa be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?Yes won
- Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Hannes Steinbach be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Keaton Wagler be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Kingston Flemings be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will LaBaron Philon be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.