NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9d24ca34ce1390ebc126df2fe41c4c6b1293e2de2ee7b95217ee3987b79226a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $540,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $540,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $540,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Pistons | 49c | 474,639$231,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242,645.72 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Pacers | 51c | 200,000$102,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102,000 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Pacers | 51c | 200,000$102,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102,000 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Pacers | 52c | 38,577$19,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,979.33 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Pistons | 48c | 30,000$14,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,600 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pacers | 52c | 19,920$10,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,358.4 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pacers | 52c | 16,442$8,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,561.94 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacers | 52c | 16,196$8,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,421.88 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Pistons | 47c | 16,063$7,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,510.87 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Pacers | 53c | 9,526$5,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,049 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Pacers | 53c | 9,434$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers | 51c | 3,764$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.64 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 55c | 2,666$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 53c | 2,009$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Pacers | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Pacers | 20c | 1,700$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.5 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Pacers | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Pacers | 39c | 820$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.03 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Pacers | 20c | 629$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pacers | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Pacers | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Pacers | 45c | 415.51$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Pacers | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Pistons | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…00b3backed Pacers | 53c | 192.31$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Pacers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 217 | 53%115 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Pacers | 55c | 130$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Pacers | 53c | 124.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…0f30backed Pacers | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…277ebacked Pacers | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Pistons | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Pacers | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Pacers | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Pacers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…2204backed Pacers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Pistons | 45c | 92.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Pacers | 55c | 89.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…380cbacked Pacers | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…04a9backed Pacers | 56c | 71.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Pacers | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pistons | 47c | 57.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Pacers | 53c | 54.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 157 | 58%91 W · 66 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Pacers | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Pistons | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…e65abacked Pacers | 52c | 38.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9756…a5d6backed Pacers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…1d14backed Pacers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…2924backed Pacers | 56c | 34.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Pacers | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 323 | 52.6%170 W · 153 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Pacers | 56c | 25.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Pacers | 76c | 25.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pistons | 48c | 25.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Pacers | 52c | 25.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…2e0cbacked Pistons | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pistons | 48c | 24.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Pacers | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…a77bbacked Pacers | 53c | 19.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…b6bebacked Pacers | 53c | 19.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-16.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Pistons won
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pistons won
- Pacers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-12.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-13.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-15.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.