Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tearlaments - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab1e298ed90c6b2599130c10451e143bbc73081222f21e3c31bd974f2a395345
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tearlamentsof Xtreme Gaming, Tearlaments
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb78f…3a77backed Xtreme Gaming | 75c | 9,212$6,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,908.86 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Tearlaments | 47c | 5,558$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,942.25 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tearlaments | 30c | 4,495$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,131.15 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Tearlaments | 20c | 4,000$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,179.99 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 3,761$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Xtreme Gaming | 3c | 2,932$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 2,226$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.29 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…40e3backed Tearlaments | 25c | 1,992$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.86 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Tearlaments | 40c | 1,873$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.09 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…de25backed Xtreme Gaming | 80c | 1,750$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Tearlaments | 22c | 1,454$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.32 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Xtreme Gaming | 79c | 1,400$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Xtreme Gaming | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.38 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…4ecabacked Xtreme Gaming | 70c | 1,223$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a9…c1d3backed Tearlaments | 73c | 1,180$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.8 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Tearlaments | 44c | 1,074$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.95 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Tearlaments | 64c | 954.58$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.33 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…8185backed Xtreme Gaming | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 702.18$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.47 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Xtreme Gaming | 15c | 645.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Tearlaments | 20c | 600$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.6 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Tearlaments | 25c | 600$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 517.46$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Tearlaments | 51c | 470.75$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.15 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Xtreme Gaming | 76c | 391.67$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd718…aa13backed Xtreme Gaming | 72c | 363.21$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.91 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 301.46$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Tearlaments | 34c | 292.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.59 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Xtreme Gaming | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Tearlaments | 33c | 227.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.68 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Tearlaments | 47c | 213.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…5ad4backed Tearlaments | 33c | 210$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Xtreme Gaming | 57c | 176.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Xtreme Gaming | 58c | 172.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 170.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 131.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…9ea9backed Tearlaments | 46c | 131.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Xtreme Gaming | 80c | 111$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…ad71backed Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed Xtreme Gaming | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 89.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…1be2backed Xtreme Gaming | 29c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 81.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Tearlaments | 16c | 76.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Xtreme Gaming | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…7754backed Xtreme Gaming | 79c | 71.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…a111backed Xtreme Gaming | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a48cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 72c | 63.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a8…2db7backed Tearlaments | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x228a…1094backed Tearlaments | 73c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed Xtreme Gaming | 72c | 49.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 44.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…f818backed Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…29febacked Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -51%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Tearlaments | 79c | 38.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked Xtreme Gaming | 70c | 35.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 68.5%100 W · 46 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…5663backed Tearlaments | 76c | 33.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…14f1backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Xtreme Gaming | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c6…830cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…4940backed Tearlaments | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tearlaments - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tearlaments (BO3)Xtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tearlaments - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.