Dota2 · resolved market
1win to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad2a4ba62d0322362da50b460adc3f96fadc974aea26c684dc2ccef798af85c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 21c | 6,530$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,145.2 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…eedebacked No | 35c | 2,743$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,771.79 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 18c | 2,222$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,822.04 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed No | 30c | 1,838$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.23 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 25c | 1,353$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.35 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…e006backed Yes | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 226 | 63.3%143 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 37c | 1,258$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.21 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 44c | 1,030$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.01 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 58c | 911.58$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.09 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e0…6ec6backed Yes | 64c | 702.34$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…da4fbacked Yes | 63c | 700$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 595.1$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.02 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 555.21$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.8 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked No | 38c | 549.31$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.07 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Yes | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked No | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed No | 34c | 306.25$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.25 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.91 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 65c | 289.95$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.59 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed Yes | 37c | 276.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…200abacked Yes | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 63c | 241.52$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…361ebacked Yes | 80c | 227.96$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.37 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…e968backed Yes | 63c | 218.46$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 49c | 216.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 80c | 212.96$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…281fbacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked No | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 33c | 188$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.08 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Yes | 52c | 170.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Yes | 60c | 154.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…dfaabacked Yes | 66c | 133.41$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa5…05bbbacked Yes | 66c | 127.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 133 | 59.4%79 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 36c | 110.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Yes | 65c | 107$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 41c | 101.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…2573backed Yes | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed Yes | 64c | 93.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Yes | 54c | 91.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…878ebacked Yes | 66c | 90.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Yes | 58c | 89.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Yes | 41c | 85.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 37c | 84.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 21c | 81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed Yes | 63c | 79.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 58c | 79.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked No | 38c | 66.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Yes | 22c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yes | 63c | 62.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4802…c8e1backed Yes | 65c | 61.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 180 | 63.9%115 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Yes | 50c | 60.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 44c | 56.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 53c | 54.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Yes | 36c | 50.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Yes | 41c | 49.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…b6b4backed Yes | 63c | 47.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Yes | 65c | 46.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed No | 38c | 35.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…3695backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 37c | 28.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 37c | 28.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed Yes | 39c | 27.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Yes | 59c | 25.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…baa3backed Yes | 65c | 23.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 316 | 48.7%154 W · 162 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffbf…1184backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Yes | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1win to win 2-0?this page
- 1win vs OG: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
- OG to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.