Golf · resolved market
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf2177e83e0b99acdb18b9860046d88da92ab2779050daa9bbd80a260ef610f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked No | 62c | 27,493$16,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,517.78 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Yes | 52c | 24,000$12,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,576 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 59c | 17,389$10,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,067.69 | 225 | 46.7%105 W · 120 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 30c | 9,038$2,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,687.66 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…3086backed Yes | 27c | 7,430$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Yes | 50c | 4,002$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 76c | 3,748$2,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 9c | 2,645$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.77 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 54c | 2,505$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Yes | 32c | 1,090$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…4721backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 45c | 900.14$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.56 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 73c | 730.53$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.76 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 52c | 687.05$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.9 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 26c | 676.73$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.57 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 47c | 668.24$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.1 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56f…75a1backed Yes | 27c | 565.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 74c | 518.07$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.59 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed No | 49c | 445.04$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.74 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…ff83backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1a…bf0abacked Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…5bb5backed Yes | 68c | 295.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0864…b3d0backed Yes | 72c | 279.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…ebf1backed Yes | 40c | 249.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked No | 61c | 242.88$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…619bbacked Yes | 30c | 213.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -88%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 65c | 173.58$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…9811backed Yes | 30c | 173.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 81 | 18.5%15 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd022…1856backed Yes | 27c | 165.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +981.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 152.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 295 | 3.7%11 W · 284 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 26c | 124.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 37c | 119$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 38c | 111.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed Yes | 30c | 104$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…6cafbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e00…9e93backed Yes | 26c | 97.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…ea33backed Yes | 41c | 96.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Yes | 37c | 95.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365c…c731backed Yes | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a74…226abacked Yes | 48c | 94.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220d…f558backed Yes | 16c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 75c | 85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 24c | 84.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 17c | 81.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +127.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…e615backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf4…bb4ebacked Yes | 27c | 75.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b15…f827backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac7…3a34backed No | 74c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…e784backed Yes | 28c | 53.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce74…72f4backed Yes | 38c | 52.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…b33bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 30c | 50.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -95.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…dd8bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…b1a7backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 57c | 46.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…695bbacked No | 64c | 42.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10d…77a1backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…2a14backed Yes | 78c | 25.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe0…a0bcbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…2f16backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?this page
- Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Andrew Novak win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Chris Kirk win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Christiaan Bezuidenhout win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Christopher Gotterup win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?Yes won
- Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Corey Conners win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Davis Chatfield win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Harry Hall win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Johnny Keefer win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Kevin Roy win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Mac Meissner win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Matt McCarty win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Max McGreevy win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Michael Kim win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Pierceson Coody win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Ryo Hisatsune win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Sam Burns win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Seong-Hyeon Kim win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Tom Hoge win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Tony Finau win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
- Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.