TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Oregon vs. Arizona

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arizonaof Oregon, Arizona
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$390,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$408,835

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $390,455 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x481b…74c1backed Oregon19c41,228$7,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,816.4410041%41 W · 59 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Oregon33c40,974$13,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,6633641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Oregon10c30,154$3,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,132.732924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80a5…f9babacked Arizona70c29,945$21,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,844.638143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c05…36b3backed Oregon28c21,996$6,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,264.641931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Oregon33c16,942$5,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,594.988644.2%38 W · 48 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Arizona62c15,030$9,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,645.2510335.9%37 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Oregon2c14,787$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.74475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+50.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Arizona51c11,317$5,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,520.945054%27 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2379…9ac8backed Oregon20c10,000$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0201118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Arizona62c8,689$5,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.394831.3%15 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-44.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1752…7993backed Arizona49c7,897$3,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,002.411136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+127.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Arizona50c7,644$3,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,809.254052.5%21 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Arizona73c5,167$3,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.139641.7%40 W · 56 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Oregon0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10822.4%2 W · 80 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-88.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Oregon39c5,000$1,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,948.9142948.5%208 W · 221 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad5…ac2ebacked Oregon21c3,886$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8009745.4%44 W · 53 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Oregon33c3,832$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.542927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Arizona54c3,774$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,736.424632.6%15 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Arizona62c3,710$2,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.77145.1%32 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Arizona62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1404045%18 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35aa…94bcbacked Oregon41c2,877$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1911225%3 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-62.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x31e2…98a8backed Oregon40c2,490$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Oregon4c2,447$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.01825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Oregon25c2,400$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.295527.3%15 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Oregon25c2,353$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.743243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked Oregon53c2,200$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.414035%14 W · 26 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x217e…3a4cbacked Arizona64c2,200$1,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.991741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc277…9d94backed Oregon16c2,071$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.841050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Oregon28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5603046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Oregon38c1,669$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.447912.7%10 W · 69 L-13.1wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-65.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xb928…5fd7backed Arizona64c1,564$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.67560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Oregon5c1,533$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8310236.3%37 W · 65 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x698f…ae41backed Oregon16c1,407$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.092222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd200…06b1backed Arizona72c1,390$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x854f…00a7backed Oregon26c1,370$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.163016.7%5 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-68.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Oregon50c1,318$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.763,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51dd…2f92backed Arizona62c1,256$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.42161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc639…997fbacked Arizona62c1,245$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa08f…87f3backed Arizona60c1,245$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Oregon37c1,236$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.79833.7%33 W · 65 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd58e…651abacked Arizona61c1,102$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef9…35cfbacked Oregon50c1,056$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.813036.7%11 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-42.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x91b0…f0b6backed Oregon3c1,033$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b2…4874backed Oregon18c1,017$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1841637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Oregon50c1,010$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004520%9 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Oregon45c948.72$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.3555657.4%319 W · 237 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a4…a943backed Arizona63c793.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20f0…c6b9backed Oregon38c771.05$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf848…03abbacked Oregon41c720$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+41.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7784…5b6dbacked Oregon29c699.19$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Arizona60c665.51$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.281,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Oregon64c600$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3841926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.23per pick49cpaid-52.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Oregon38c599.98$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.8113936.7%51 W · 88 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Arizona61c581.97$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.9715851.9%82 W · 76 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Oregon36c543.37$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9216842.3%71 W · 97 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75f0…7e92backed Oregon34c516.53$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.621442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…9e23backed Oregon40c507.62$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.861822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Oregon40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20048462.8%304 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Oregon37c499.99$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1854450%22 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+43.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Arizona63c457.87$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.413351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Oregon5c453$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.771,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b2…ffd0backed Oregon20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8090%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8053…2a8ebacked Arizona56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.144226.2%11 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5230…8132backed Oregon29c346.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019e…af1dbacked Oregon39c333$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8780%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2fd3…7214backed Arizona44c326.58$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.361625%4 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-58.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Arizona59c323.48$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.361758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7794…8df9backed Arizona62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.583324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-39.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9320…95ddbacked Oregon36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4698…6c24backed Arizona77c300$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.243669.4%25 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91ed…e60abacked Oregon7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Oregon38c263.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.028151.9%42 W · 39 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ee4…80f2backed Arizona80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501560%9 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62b2…85d5backed Oregon36c250$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200e…e239backed Oregon20c245.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Arizona61c229.51$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.512568%17 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+21.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab96…ae06backed Oregon64c219.84$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.640%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x827b…1eedbacked Oregon18c202.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3650%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Oregon37c195.76$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.439751.5%50 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76c4…470bbacked Arizona73c191.78$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.781376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+39.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b69…7acdbacked Oregon11c190.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e12…7348backed Arizona59c168.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.172564%16 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd6c…42b2backed Oregon64c165.39$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7484…33eebacked Oregon26c159.62$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Arizona64c142.72$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.456953.6%37 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb978…a2a0backed Arizona63c141.9$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd49…bfa4backed Arizona35c140$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Oregon36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507860.3%47 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Oregon19c135$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.41250%6 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+214.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xedf4…00fbbacked Arizona61c132$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+92.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x699d…7b47backed Oregon36c111.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402020%4 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+74.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x169e…de26backed Arizona80c109.38$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.943053.3%16 W · 14 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick67cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Oregon39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3930139.2%118 W · 183 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Arizona62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384770.2%33 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked Oregon35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x049a…b22abacked Oregon20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc5c…fbc2backed Oregon13c99.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e5…316dbacked Arizona57c94.35$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.352619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Arizona61c90$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.555152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.