Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbbf1bfb70267bfe506528e6935c2bf7c3e1ebb66febbf932d733c46ed2f1850
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 79c | 6,300$4,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.89 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfef2…1470backed Yes | 27c | 3,641$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5635…6953backed Yes | 26c | 2,679$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…8b6fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 73c | 2,111$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.05 | 211 | 54.5%115 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…a128backed Yes | 26c | 1,692$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 73c | 1,500$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.96 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 14c | 1,190$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.39 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefd…4f2abacked Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…fc6cbacked Yes | 16c | 954.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 76c | 652.26$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.6 | 670 | 42.2%283 W · 387 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed No | 74c | 606$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.56 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 76c | 501.28$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.63 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…8c9dbacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 280 | 70%196 W · 84 L | +49.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…ef6abacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 255 | 32.9%84 W · 171 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Yes | 25c | 320$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…31cabacked Yes | 27c | 300.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 22c | 222.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…3058backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…4a80backed Yes | 24c | 208.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 11c | 205$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 24c | 204.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed Yes | 22c | 199.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…1524backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd59…0a77backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4891…0165backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 24c | 188.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…09eabacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 26c | 178$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 78c | 171.88$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…fa0dbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…874abacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…fe0fbacked Yes | 27c | 145.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…8949backed Yes | 22c | 144.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 26c | 135.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…58f6backed No | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 25c | 130.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa896…2043backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 28c | 106.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…4b04backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…3983backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…5129backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 26c | 92.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed No | 80c | 90.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 137 | 27%37 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 26c | 89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -11.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 74c | 83.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 26c | 83.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 78c | 81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…f1aebacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba72…143bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 18c | 62.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…0c8fbacked Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 76c | 58.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…fdeebacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…a57ebacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 74cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 322 | 22.4%72 W · 250 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 44.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.36per pick | 46cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…8bd6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…be7bbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d33…1d5dbacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17?Yes won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.