Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike 3 countries in October 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd6c9dcbbf279ec16536724b73336b1b9f27e78f0034e872261c590a01110bf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 6,193$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…90f5backed Yes | 4c | 2,802$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 3c | 2,500$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 1,547$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.63 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 27c | 1,044$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.64 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,004$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 26c | 765$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.45 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373f…1878backed No | 76c | 687.89$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3524…e34ebacked Yes | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 29c | 501.25$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.37 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 3c | 397.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 24c | 349.75$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 349.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…1e0cbacked Yes | 23c | 348.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 71c | 334.13$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 34c | 300$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 28c | 251.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed Yes | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 72c | 206.08$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…43a2backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6c…0bc2backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 20cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 72c | 155$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 147.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…9542backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e09…fc91backed Yes | 20c | 98.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2945…862ebacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 68c | 83.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 28c | 57.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…9f6abacked Yes | 23c | 45.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbeba…f32abacked No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 34c | 35.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 76c | 30.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in October 2025?this page
- Will Israel strike 0 countries in October 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 1 country in October 2025?Yes won
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in October 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 4 countries in October 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 5 or more countries in October 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.