Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike 1 country in October 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x823d7961ff6308683bee9e5145487928a0bf33fa3c9180d7d41165ff0365e511
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 65c | 2,626$1,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.62 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…87b9backed Yes | 6c | 1,785$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.99 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 23c | 1,015$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.4 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 73c | 873.45$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.87 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 12c | 824.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 751.65$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.53 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 687.13$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.91 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 17c | 597.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.57 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 582.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 582.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 48c | 558.22$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.63 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 19c | 550$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.5 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 46c | 508.01$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.94 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…d0f5backed No | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked No | 21c | 380$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 39c | 365.3$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.9 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked Yes | 72c | 315.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 56c | 309.53$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.07 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 76c | 292.42$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 26c | 265.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.87 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 48c | 239.94$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.22 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…c7babacked Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 18c | 234.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.87 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 5c | 231.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 224.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.49 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 18c | 204.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.55 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…f352backed No | 13c | 201.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…43a2backed Yes | 33c | 192.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…e4a1backed No | 9c | 189.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6c…0bc2backed Yes | 16c | 160$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 20cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f93…5f54backed Yes | 62c | 153.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 9c | 144.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 17c | 125$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…0b12backed Yes | 17c | 116.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +280.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 22c | 115.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 73c | 114.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 21c | 111.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked Yes | 42c | 103.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 102$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0d…1064backed No | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…5e41backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fee…5706backed No | 45c | 74.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 47c | 71.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9549backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7183…69c9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…ec06backed No | 56c | 41.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8397…756abacked Yes | 79c | 37.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6a7ebacked Yes | 68c | 35.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…79cabacked Yes | 57c | 35.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b85…6ee7backed Yes | 79c | 31.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a3…041bbacked Yes | 56c | 26.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike 1 country in October 2025?this page
- Will Israel strike 0 countries in October 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in October 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in October 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 4 countries in October 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 5 or more countries in October 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.