Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike 2 countries in October 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaa8fc6f3e1b55f04e48a7faa3c442ae81beabe334bede68ef1077b098997bf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd80d…862cbacked Yes | 15c | 5,256$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 8c | 3,088$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.57 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 2,667$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.49 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed Yes | 49c | 1,639$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.7 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 50c | 1,259$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 41c | 1,236$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.09 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9f…ee16backed Yes | 8c | 1,103$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 54c | 1,057$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.35 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 2c | 1,055$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 43c | 1,051$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 44c | 1,041$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.19 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes | 16c | 857.47$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.54 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 8c | 777.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 45c | 670.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 51c | 629.95$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.56 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 618.41$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 618.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…56b0backed Yes | 8c | 596.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 57c | 510$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.6 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed Yes | 7c | 481.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed Yes | 30c | 454.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.89 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 28c | 420.95$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.45 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 22c | 420.66$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…b5bfbacked No | 46c | 420$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.74 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 64c | 389.8$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 56c | 361.69$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.34 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…90f5backed Yes | 14c | 355.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 49c | 350$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 338.87$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fac…e8aebacked Yes | 6c | 322.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 62c | 321.98$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.47 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 64c | 312.92$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.73 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 48c | 307.23$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.29 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fe…a41abacked Yes | 14c | 278.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…4b0dbacked No | 50c | 238$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195c…5f9abacked Yes | 19c | 233.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…abeabacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc2…af19backed Yes | 9c | 210.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb509…813fbacked Yes | 14c | 208.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 6c | 200.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…1026backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa82…15d5backed Yes | 23c | 198.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…c2e9backed Yes | 36c | 197.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…1ce2backed Yes | 8c | 190.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 48c | 188.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 77c | 171.97$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…5297backed Yes | 18c | 164.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…1e0cbacked Yes | 12c | 163.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 25c | 158.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd76a…79acbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 31c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb91…7880backed Yes | 15c | 133.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 20c | 132.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed No | 45c | 130$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 34c | 122$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa21…99f1backed Yes | 14c | 119.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…43a2backed Yes | 44c | 116.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 71c | 112.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 112.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 24c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 19c | 107.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…ff9dbacked Yes | 16c | 102.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…97d1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…3eecbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 81.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…bdafbacked No | 51c | 78.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…9f6abacked Yes | 28c | 70.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed Yes | 21c | 62.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 74c | 57.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabac…6c97backed Yes | 28c | 52.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…9d68backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 42.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4194…3184backed No | 44c | 41.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7856…411cbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a3…041bbacked Yes | 29c | 38.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9d…bb71backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4293…9d3ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in October 2025?this page
- Will Israel strike 0 countries in October 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 1 country in October 2025?Yes won
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in October 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 4 countries in October 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 5 or more countries in October 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.