Spread: Slovenia (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7f485f404f053d63123a279296d1f0e5df3287fd071199663d26d197b4ff836

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Cyprusof Slovenia, Cyprus
Resolved: Jun 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $56,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $57,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,983 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x38f0…2768backed Cyprus	60c	25,146$15,140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,006.15	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48a6backed Slovenia	39c	10,000$3,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,899.93	87	43.7%38 W · 49 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Slovenia	39c	9,495$3,702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,701.94	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cyprus	71c	6,296$4,466 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,829.57	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Slovenia	18c	2,637$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482.62	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Slovenia	39c	2,000$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$779.99	116	57.8%67 W · 49 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Slovenia	28c	1,994$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.23	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5e…fd91backed Cyprus	53c	1,578$831 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$747.3	44	31.8%14 W · 30 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Slovenia	23c	1,266$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.03	444	35.4%157 W · 287 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Cyprus	65c	1,076$702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$373.15	631	51.5%325 W · 306 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Slovenia	27c	1,054$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.96	343	30%103 W · 240 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Slovenia	40c	1,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	778	45%350 W · 428 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Slovenia	38c	999.97$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.99	407	36.6%149 W · 258 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Slovenia	30c	934.97$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.64	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Slovenia	41c	910$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.1	264	54.5%144 W · 120 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Slovenia	21c	857.62$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.37	935	42.2%395 W · 540 L	-27.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Slovenia	47c	811.84$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.42	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Slovenia	39c	611.08$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.99	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc48…c120backed Cyprus	61c	600$366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234	374	51.6%193 W · 181 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Slovenia	42c	500$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	150	48%72 W · 78 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Slovenia	48c	477.36$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.04	2,411	53%1,278 W · 1,133 L	+75.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Cyprus	61c	435.83$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.98	481	52.4%252 W · 229 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Slovenia	41c	346.12$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.91	112	51.8%58 W · 54 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Cyprus	61c	311.09$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.26	847	51%432 W · 415 L	+10.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Slovenia	23c	301.48$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.8	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Slovenia	48c	289.64$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.62	2,380	53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L	+76.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Slovenia	15c	265.42$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.81	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Slovenia	39c	248.61$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.96	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Slovenia	40c	224$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.55	597	52.1%311 W · 286 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Cyprus	58c	210$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.2	165	52.1%86 W · 79 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Slovenia	36c	199.99$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	141	46.1%65 W · 76 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Slovenia	40c	199.99$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	244	48.4%118 W · 126 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Slovenia	40c	198.17$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.11	1,688	54.4%918 W · 770 L	+31.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Slovenia	27c	194.81$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.03	1,001	53.9%540 W · 461 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Slovenia	40c	167.85$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.14	418	57.9%242 W · 176 L	+14.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Cyprus	62c	152.14$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.49	414	51.4%213 W · 201 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Cyprus	62c	152.14$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.49	355	49.9%177 W · 178 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Slovenia	38c	150$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	1,616	51.2%827 W · 789 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Cyprus	59c	139.99$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.4	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca09…d50ebacked Slovenia	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d9…1059backed Slovenia	41c	122.93$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	119	52.9%63 W · 56 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Slovenia	41c	121.95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29d3…ccf6backed Slovenia	43c	112.93$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.56	171	45%77 W · 94 L	+11.5wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Cyprus	60c	106$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.4	815	54.8%447 W · 368 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd6…3806backed Slovenia	42c	101$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.76	71	63.4%45 W · 26 L	+5.4wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Slovenia	40c	100.1$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.04	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Cyprus	60c	86.39$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.2	765	51.6%395 W · 370 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Cyprus	60c	83.33$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.33	164	37.2%61 W · 103 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Slovenia	41c	80$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.8	175	57.1%100 W · 75 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Cyprus	78c	72.6$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.99	146	47.3%69 W · 77 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc08c…4b12backed Cyprus	61c	65.57$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.57	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb2…82e5backed Slovenia	39c	62.72$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.46	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-4.5wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9df2…99f5backed Slovenia	40c	62.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	160	40.6%65 W · 95 L	+7.0wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Slovenia	40c	62.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	823	40.9%337 W · 486 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Slovenia	39c	60$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0e…c7a6backed Slovenia	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadcb…c2bebacked Slovenia	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	95	32.6%31 W · 64 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed Slovenia	42c	50.89$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.13	143	42.7%61 W · 82 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Slovenia	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	291	38.5%112 W · 179 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Cyprus	61c	49.18$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.18	126	44.4%56 W · 70 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x166c…6d5abacked Slovenia	40c	44.83$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.93	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Slovenia	32c	40.78$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	155	43.9%68 W · 87 L	+9.0wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Slovenia	41c	40.02$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.59	239	40.6%97 W · 142 L	-9.1wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-21%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Slovenia	39c	37.92$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Cyprus	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	180	53.3%96 W · 84 L	-10.9wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-16%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa402…d14bbacked Slovenia	41c	35.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	146	53.4%78 W · 68 L	-11.6wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7885…1173backed Slovenia	42c	33.38$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	114	50.9%58 W · 56 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Cyprus	61c	32.79$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.79	370	57.3%212 W · 158 L	+13.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88fb…760ebacked Slovenia	43c	32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.76	65	55.4%36 W · 29 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Cyprus	64c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	242	57.9%140 W · 102 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Slovenia	40c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Cyprus	58c	29.97$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.74	373	48.3%180 W · 193 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Cyprus	61c	29.33$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.43	360	45.3%163 W · 197 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Slovenia	40c	27.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	266	31.2%83 W · 183 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8328…e5ebbacked Cyprus	61c	27.59$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.76	365	43.3%158 W · 207 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Cyprus	60c	25.01$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.13	548	59.5%326 W · 222 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a5…f52ebacked Slovenia	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	177	38.4%68 W · 109 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef0…25b2backed Cyprus	60c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ea9…5b98backed Cyprus	61c	24.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.67	187	64.2%120 W · 67 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Cyprus	61c	22.49$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.77	315	50.8%160 W · 155 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Cyprus	76c	22$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.23	118	60.2%71 W · 47 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Cyprus	57c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.03	379	50.1%190 W · 189 L	-12.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9565…ec9abacked Cyprus	60c	20.17$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.07	190	38.9%74 W · 116 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed Cyprus	71c	16.73$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.84	475	46.1%219 W · 256 L	-15.8wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Cyprus	71c	15.92$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.64	1,459	53.9%787 W · 672 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Slovenia (-1.5)this page
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 0.5Over won
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5Over won
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5Under won
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5Under won
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 4.5Under won
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5)Slovenia won
Spread: Slovenia (-2.5)Cyprus won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Slovenia (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event