TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO1)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Movistar KOIof Movistar KOI, Karmine Corp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$279,089
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$276,682

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,089 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Karmine Corp43c26,924$11,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,502.431,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3ac…88c9backed Movistar KOI52c21,154$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,153.823551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed Movistar KOI53c20,000$10,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,415.6523351.1%119 W · 114 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed Movistar KOI54c12,923$6,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,949.1321448.1%103 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Movistar KOI55c11,720$6,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,329.081,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ca…cebbbacked Karmine Corp63c11,200$7,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,055.98850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8476backed Karmine Corp0c10,979$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.731241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Movistar KOI51c10,435$5,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,113.0412759.8%76 W · 51 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Karmine Corp39c8,001$3,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,133.021,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Karmine Corp52c7,985$4,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,174.1841644.2%184 W · 232 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Karmine Corp43c5,848$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,526.4731644.3%140 W · 176 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x147e…0a4bbacked Karmine Corp47c5,428$2,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Karmine Corp39c4,916$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.8185046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed Karmine Corp48c4,853$2,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.4542050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Movistar KOI51c4,500$2,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20516454.9%90 W · 74 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Karmine Corp46c4,425$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.961,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Karmine Corp47c4,320$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,030.419146.1%88 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29df…8ebcbacked Karmine Corp49c4,249$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,082.0110133.7%34 W · 67 L-11.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Karmine Corp30c4,000$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.3385442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00df…0d23backed Karmine Corp54c3,768$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.89852%51 W · 47 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Karmine Corp48c3,630$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.3848143.2%208 W · 273 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Movistar KOI52c3,526$1,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675.22,30339.4%907 W · 1,396 L-82.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Karmine Corp47c3,514$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.4669041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed Karmine Corp43c3,048$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.7518741.2%77 W · 110 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a1…8f8dbacked Karmine Corp47c2,740$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3004143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Movistar KOI50c2,494$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.821,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb6d…942cbacked Karmine Corp31c2,414$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.096738.8%26 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Karmine Corp49c2,249$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.0817537.1%65 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Movistar KOI74c2,200$1,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.17650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Movistar KOI49c2,019$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.771,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Karmine Corp46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.941,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Karmine Corp30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60022035.9%79 W · 141 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked Movistar KOI56c2,000$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.5714840.5%60 W · 88 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Movistar KOI54c1,851$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.3743151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Movistar KOI80c1,770$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.7148157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Karmine Corp50c1,762$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.521,47648.3%713 W · 763 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed Karmine Corp37c1,755$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.039047.8%43 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea1e…2764backed Movistar KOI55c1,632$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.151258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c14…2878backed Karmine Corp43c1,606$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.22633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Movistar KOI47c1,533$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80615536.8%57 W · 98 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Karmine Corp48c1,528$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.7877131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Movistar KOI50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7501,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed Movistar KOI53c1,446$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.623745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Movistar KOI58c1,426$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.626940.5%109 W · 160 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Karmine Corp47c1,406$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.9951160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d7…7790backed Movistar KOI73c1,373$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.226656.1%37 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Movistar KOI37c1,365$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.821,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Movistar KOI37c1,351$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.3583941%344 W · 495 L-37.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b0c…e795backed Movistar KOI52c1,325$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.1512259%72 W · 50 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Movistar KOI49c1,225$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.891,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Movistar KOI56c1,195$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.4122234.7%77 W · 145 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76d3…7034backed Movistar KOI37c1,125$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.432548%12 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-12.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf06…c9ffbacked Karmine Corp49c1,123$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54863352%329 W · 304 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Karmine Corp49c1,120$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.2617241.9%72 W · 100 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed Karmine Corp22c1,070$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.740651.7%210 W · 196 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Karmine Corp48c1,000$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.3650643.1%218 W · 288 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b3…a28dbacked Karmine Corp61c988.2$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60018065%117 W · 63 L+0.5wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc466…6201backed Movistar KOI51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.394153.7%22 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51df…2d97backed Karmine Corp49c957.93$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.777853.8%42 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7c…cbaabacked Karmine Corp29c945.81$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.719238%35 W · 57 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Movistar KOI79c926.09$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.2250569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc17…60dabacked Movistar KOI48c921.65$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Movistar KOI51c901.82$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.831668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd690…93a6backed Movistar KOI56c900$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39610160.4%61 W · 40 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Movistar KOI48c869.82$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.411,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8df0…96a6backed Karmine Corp47c864.25$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.810761.7%66 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed Movistar KOI51c839.22$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.2216034.4%55 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Karmine Corp49c831.94$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.7992450.9%470 W · 454 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked Karmine Corp48c825.34$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40034651.2%177 W · 169 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Movistar KOI58c763.64$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.6622636.7%83 W · 143 L-16.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Karmine Corp28c749.98$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.3745618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8397…231fbacked Karmine Corp35c700$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.114932.7%16 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Karmine Corp35c692.55$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.789745.4%44 W · 53 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Movistar KOI30c678.23$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.3369756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Karmine Corp39c668.18$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.1444843.8%196 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f49…463abacked Karmine Corp58c664.76$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.5620045%90 W · 110 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Movistar KOI35c662.97$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.7837039.5%146 W · 224 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6437…b9debacked Karmine Corp27c636.41$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb99a…1300backed Karmine Corp62c627.89$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.291844.4%8 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.18per pick63cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Karmine Corp48c600$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.4940347.4%191 W · 212 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Karmine Corp48c596.08$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.1246033.9%156 W · 304 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Karmine Corp30c578.93$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5250242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Movistar KOI41c570.83$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.51,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Karmine Corp49c530.61$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed Karmine Corp57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30044042%185 W · 255 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32f2…7830backed Karmine Corp25c526$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.53348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Movistar KOI46c513.7$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.748742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180f…3cabbacked Karmine Corp21c512.36$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103112.9%4 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Movistar KOI60c497.55$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.4733251.5%171 W · 161 L+33.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1816…c3f9backed Movistar KOI42c477.01$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.011450%7 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+107.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x031b…babcbacked Karmine Corp6c473.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.287536%27 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-23.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Karmine Corp36c472.98$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.2516934.3%58 W · 111 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Movistar KOI54c462.97$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.972,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf70f…3c97backed Karmine Corp60c448$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.616456.7%93 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Karmine Corp20c439.41$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.881225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Karmine Corp42c431.21$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18016851.2%86 W · 82 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3af…aca1backed Karmine Corp36c428.47$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.1512948.8%63 W · 66 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc690…ec5bbacked Karmine Corp48c426.22$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.5141453.4%221 W · 193 L+1.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3092…3ce2backed Karmine Corp71c426.15$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.471442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1ec…9c6dbacked Karmine Corp47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009459.6%56 W · 38 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.