TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, Karmine Corp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$444,757
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$556,457

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $444,757 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 378 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf201…527ebacked G2 Esports69c48,893$33,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,287.91,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Karmine Corp58c27,504$15,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,925.6828361.5%174 W · 109 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Karmine Corp49c14,394$6,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,99625751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Karmine Corp21c13,468$2,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,804.661,01647%478 W · 538 L+21.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Karmine Corp44c11,610$5,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,052.672,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ff…25dcbacked Karmine Corp0c9,561$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Karmine Corp48c8,858$4,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,246.0726246.6%122 W · 140 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked G2 Esports74c7,564$5,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.4218961.4%116 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked G2 Esports57c7,329$4,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,147.766437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x858e…1c3bbacked Karmine Corp28c7,132$2,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020.956237.1%23 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed G2 Esports60c7,086$4,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,834.414839.2%58 W · 90 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Karmine Corp30c6,695$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.914644.5%65 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd812…2558backed Karmine Corp20c6,674$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.3121137%78 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33c…4c38backed Karmine Corp37c5,800$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,132.5124065%156 W · 84 L+24.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed G2 Esports70c5,373$3,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.031,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked G2 Esports65c5,203$3,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,826.971,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Karmine Corp43c5,196$2,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,226.1218829.8%56 W · 132 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd57b…1d60backed Karmine Corp40c5,141$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.02742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+78%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Karmine Corp39c5,000$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,969.993,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Karmine Corp44c4,303$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90076639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed G2 Esports66c4,200$2,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.9950770%355 W · 152 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed G2 Esports58c4,017$2,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.671,81339.1%709 W · 1,104 L-30.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked Karmine Corp34c3,500$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19014041.4%58 W · 82 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a97…6315backed Karmine Corp38c3,240$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Karmine Corp23c3,085$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.3381443.5%354 W · 460 L+30.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Karmine Corp39c2,989$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.2943151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e9…cb1bbacked G2 Esports67c2,987$2,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.476149.2%30 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed G2 Esports58c2,600$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1021,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed G2 Esports67c2,545$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.492,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Karmine Corp35c2,483$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.082,83641.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L-12.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed G2 Esports61c2,422$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.577343.8%32 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-28.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc499…f793backed Karmine Corp9c2,398$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.222030%6 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-32.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked G2 Esports65c2,374$1,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.7470462.1%437 W · 267 L-38.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Karmine Corp41c2,090$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85613136.6%48 W · 83 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed G2 Esports69c2,047$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.3714757.1%84 W · 63 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked G2 Esports66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68079653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d2…1b03backed G2 Esports54c1,846$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.9811945.4%54 W · 65 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Karmine Corp57c1,738$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.528254.9%45 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Karmine Corp44c1,716$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75713544.4%60 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Karmine Corp39c1,700$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6661,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked G2 Esports58c1,676$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.861,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed G2 Esports68c1,545$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.7148157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb734…fc38backed G2 Esports60c1,537$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.327568%51 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked G2 Esports62c1,500$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.992,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked G2 Esports59c1,500$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.9896057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Karmine Corp9c1,441$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.611,06028.5%302 W · 758 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f0…6718backed G2 Esports69c1,282$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.887169%49 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Karmine Corp36c1,176$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.4413525.2%34 W · 101 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Karmine Corp45c1,113$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.1916154%87 W · 74 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd01…d5acbacked G2 Esports67c1,092$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.324858.1%144 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked G2 Esports57c1,076$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.361,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed G2 Esports53c1,036$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.521,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x757f…311dbacked G2 Esports74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed G2 Esports60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40013946%64 W · 75 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Karmine Corp40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.5911434.2%39 W · 75 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Karmine Corp30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9678…b4bfbacked Karmine Corp2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202323.9%9 W · 223 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Karmine Corp26c985.41$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.4569756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5656…32fcbacked G2 Esports58c973$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.939245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked G2 Esports73c962.48$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.5233456%187 W · 147 L-15.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Karmine Corp46c944.63$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.2754944.4%244 W · 305 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Karmine Corp56c900$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5047061.4%43 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8c…0e0cbacked G2 Esports60c864.07$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.6812653.2%67 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Karmine Corp35c799.98$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.991,22348.6%594 W · 629 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4367…e904backed G2 Esports63c792.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.032560%15 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed G2 Esports65c786.04$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.0445547.7%217 W · 238 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2249…3005backed G2 Esports64c778.05$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.0428458.5%166 W · 118 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd138…3140backed G2 Esports65c769.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.236566.2%43 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00f5…7b42backed G2 Esports58c747.55$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.974445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3911…30f3backed G2 Esports64c731.37$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.0616354%88 W · 75 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6260…fed5backed Karmine Corp56c709.19$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.2216660.8%101 W · 65 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Karmine Corp37c700$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26146339.5%183 W · 280 L-37.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Karmine Corp40c700$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801,44157.4%827 W · 614 L+35.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Karmine Corp40c699.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28040347.4%191 W · 212 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Karmine Corp30c672$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.610738.3%41 W · 66 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3af5…caebbacked G2 Esports80c664.99$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9911742.7%50 W · 67 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed G2 Esports62c661.44$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.351,80251.2%923 W · 879 L+53.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed G2 Esports61c651.37$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.0357947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed G2 Esports50c630.22$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.7630139.5%119 W · 182 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Karmine Corp43c619.07$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.234250.6%173 W · 169 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked G2 Esports60c608.45$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.3840237.8%152 W · 250 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed G2 Esports61c601.97$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.2839851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed Karmine Corp35c600$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21086758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Karmine Corp34c600$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20442148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked G2 Esports63c599$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.9945344.6%202 W · 251 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2386…1722backed G2 Esports64c592.53$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.242259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Karmine Corp38c583.65$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.793923.1%9 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-52%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked G2 Esports62c564.52$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.521,21954.5%664 W · 555 L+52.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Karmine Corp31c561$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.563,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked G2 Esports63c541$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.2137345%168 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd711…749cbacked Karmine Corp56c540.04$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.7926049.2%128 W · 132 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed G2 Esports56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.7113557%77 W · 58 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7af0…509dbacked G2 Esports62c532.2$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.2425668.4%175 W · 81 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Karmine Corp19c531.73$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6866316.4%109 W · 554 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa394…89e9backed G2 Esports70c529.99$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.24744.7%21 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4609…17a7backed Karmine Corp43c528$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Karmine Corp38c527.43$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0577131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…bce9backed G2 Esports63c509.48$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.482657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaef…4775backed G2 Esports74c508.74$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.189148.4%44 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d83…272cbacked G2 Esports63c506.02$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.0259341.8%248 W · 345 L-16.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.