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Lol · resolved market

LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Karmine Corpof G2 Esports, Karmine Corp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$547,213
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$628,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $547,213 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52ec…a6f3backed Karmine Corp63c59,115$37,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,111.182543.3%357 W · 468 L+29.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Karmine Corp41c18,922$7,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,213.5525446.1%117 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed G2 Esports56c16,205$9,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,153.0948757.7%281 W · 206 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Karmine Corp40c15,409$6,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,199.7431153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked G2 Esports63c13,501$8,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,546.351,61842.3%685 W · 933 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked G2 Esports58c11,607$6,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,715.7566437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Karmine Corp42c10,509$4,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,106.8625751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d4d…fe4abacked Karmine Corp36c9,652$3,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,132.88359%49 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked G2 Esports60c9,234$5,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,540.5118961.4%116 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked G2 Esports64c9,000$5,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,747.641,02242.4%433 W · 589 L-26.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed G2 Esports57c7,621$4,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,328.9277039.6%305 W · 465 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b75…f8fabacked G2 Esports61c7,500$4,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5751963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33c…4c38backed Karmine Corp39c7,500$2,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,604.9924065%156 W · 84 L+24.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8de7…f96dbacked G2 Esports1c7,000$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Karmine Corp40c6,621$2,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,972.271,03047%484 W · 546 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed G2 Esports62c6,280$3,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,886.711,48561.3%910 W · 575 L-21.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked G2 Esports53c6,214$3,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,320.2255955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Karmine Corp28c5,299$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,832.881,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ffa…cc36backed G2 Esports1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc934…5551backed G2 Esports1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc461…83dbbacked G2 Esports1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Karmine Corp41c5,000$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,939.993,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9560…9467backed Karmine Corp39c4,886$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,980.5120454.9%112 W · 92 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked G2 Esports39c4,034$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.682,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb91e…b045backed G2 Esports1c4,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5570%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Karmine Corp39c4,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,44050040.8%204 W · 296 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed G2 Esports46c3,936$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.621,64240.2%660 W · 982 L+48.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2509…79a0backed Karmine Corp51c3,928$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,932.47450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Karmine Corp32c3,922$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,647.8618451.6%95 W · 89 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf344…13ffbacked G2 Esports58c3,764$2,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,19928166.5%187 W · 94 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Karmine Corp41c3,636$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.0143151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x858e…1c3bbacked Karmine Corp19c3,620$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,922.526237.1%23 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…6c3abacked G2 Esports1c3,500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Karmine Corp33c3,285$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,212.4694134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Karmine Corp41c2,992$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.8721536.7%79 W · 136 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11c3…f000backed G2 Esports1c2,893$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+43.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Karmine Corp47c2,600$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,37863746.5%296 W · 341 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb326…7075backed G2 Esports5c2,548$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.917410.9%19 W · 155 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked G2 Esports59c2,523$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.2619450.5%98 W · 96 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Karmine Corp13c2,386$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,075.510450%52 W · 52 L-9.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked G2 Esports59c2,172$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.1392354.3%501 W · 422 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed G2 Esports49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,02647.9%491 W · 535 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked G2 Esports60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.524151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5b8…99f3backed G2 Esports1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked G2 Esports60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.9979653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed Karmine Corp42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.9942250.2%212 W · 210 L+27.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked G2 Esports53c1,917$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01646752.7%246 W · 221 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Karmine Corp34c1,800$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,18530139.5%119 W · 182 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Karmine Corp47c1,720$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9132,02858.2%1,180 W · 848 L+88.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x300c…7708backed Karmine Corp23c1,672$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.657448.6%36 W · 38 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+39.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Karmine Corp47c1,651$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.6713136.6%48 W · 83 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Karmine Corp38c1,598$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.1113130.5%40 W · 91 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Karmine Corp45c1,500$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82570456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5425…f968backed G2 Esports54c1,492$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8007742.9%33 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed G2 Esports35c1,429$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Karmine Corp40c1,295$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77733043.9%145 W · 185 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked G2 Esports61c1,279$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.1971362.1%443 W · 270 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Karmine Corp41c1,273$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.0732345.8%148 W · 175 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71c0…13b5backed G2 Esports57c1,232$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.7521954.3%119 W · 100 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed G2 Esports25c1,200$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.545618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2386…1722backed G2 Esports39c1,200$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4642259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Karmine Corp39c1,200$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.151,01648%488 W · 528 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7896…5a86backed Karmine Corp41c1,200$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.994143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Karmine Corp55c1,140$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.4523657.2%135 W · 101 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Karmine Corp43c1,138$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.4618829.8%56 W · 132 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked G2 Esports74c1,081$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80014761.2%90 W · 57 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed G2 Esports53c1,060$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.191,81751.1%929 W · 888 L+52.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Karmine Corp51c1,050$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.6450969.9%356 W · 153 L+15.2wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Karmine Corp48c1,041$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.321,32455.7%738 W · 586 L+43.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed G2 Esports57c1,023$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.2711744.4%52 W · 65 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2480…c148backed G2 Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-39.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed G2 Esports52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52013946%64 W · 75 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed G2 Esports55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55086758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedaa…dc25backed G2 Esports58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-79.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2590…e38ebacked G2 Esports2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+127.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb957…d44fbacked G2 Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff3…a69ebacked G2 Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e62…b31cbacked G2 Esports2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed G2 Esports52c999.99$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.991,08947.3%515 W · 574 L+3.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed Karmine Corp52c999.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.9919839.9%79 W · 119 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked G2 Esports51c999.99$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.9977131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked G2 Esports55c999.97$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9896057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Karmine Corp45c996.88$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.261,15343.7%504 W · 649 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed G2 Esports51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50048553.4%259 W · 226 L-19.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7596…9773backed G2 Esports61c978.79$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.192454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked G2 Esports49c977.01$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.342,84541.4%1,178 W · 1,667 L-14.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Karmine Corp32c937.5$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.514856.1%83 W · 65 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0f…fe01backed Karmine Corp44c913.36$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.3636260.5%219 W · 143 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4367…e904backed Karmine Corp55c910.55$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.552560%15 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked G2 Esports55c900$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49596951.3%497 W · 472 L+42.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed G2 Esports64c891.98$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.22,92638.4%1,125 W · 1,801 L-122.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00f5…7b42backed Karmine Corp54c848.37$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.254445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Karmine Corp41c839.98$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.5912450%62 W · 62 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba50…58b1backed Karmine Corp48c832.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.324669.6%32 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked Karmine Corp48c820$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.411950.4%60 W · 59 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f9b…bc2fbacked G2 Esports62c805.73$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.5552662%326 W · 200 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Karmine Corp41c783$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.9727447.8%131 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x141f…7711backed Karmine Corp52c710.33$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.5114248.6%69 W · 73 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f0…6718backed G2 Esports75c705.82$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.337169%49 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed G2 Esports73c691.78$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.46363.5%40 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.