TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FURIA Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIA Esportsof FURIA Esports, G2 Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$349,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$366,924

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,933 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 301 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed G2 Esports67c35,101$23,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,616.1540945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked FURIA Esports27c30,092$8,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,088.852343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed FURIA Esports35c26,115$9,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,970.57164.8%46 W · 25 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed G2 Esports74c15,000$11,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,095.7210455.8%58 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed G2 Esports65c10,000$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,50018457.1%105 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed FURIA Esports29c9,959$2,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,050.3313355.6%74 W · 59 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed G2 Esports70c8,735$6,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,139.2225855.4%143 W · 115 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed G2 Esports71c8,043$5,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,709.855530.9%17 W · 38 L-8.8wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-39.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd88a…a7e4backed G2 Esports77c7,768$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,000771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed FURIA Esports13c6,400$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,581.4532445.4%147 W · 177 L+51.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+39.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed G2 Esports65c5,555$3,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,610.752657.7%15 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71d6…7248backed FURIA Esports16c5,357$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,505.44520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed G2 Esports38c5,274$1,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,991.6254542.2%230 W · 315 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked FURIA Esports25c5,000$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,749.994630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d66…ff1dbacked FURIA Esports33c4,527$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,027.121241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked G2 Esports65c4,507$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,925.046150.8%31 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FURIA Esports50c4,319$2,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,180.993248.1%448 W · 484 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked FURIA Esports26c4,109$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,051.3415431.2%48 W · 106 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed G2 Esports77c4,000$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,079.9932047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed FURIA Esports26c3,830$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,833.8619140.3%77 W · 114 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FURIA Esports50c3,750$1,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.1765559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed FURIA Esports23c3,700$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,84942035%147 W · 273 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked G2 Esports67c3,453$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,312.2553455.2%295 W · 239 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7477…52cebacked G2 Esports75c3,300$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,47520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b6d…27bbbacked FURIA Esports14c3,227$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,764.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+249.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked FURIA Esports21c3,017$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,381.031957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3355…dd2fbacked FURIA Esports21c2,760$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid+19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked G2 Esports67c2,683$1,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.021,36538.9%531 W · 834 L-60.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d72…02d0backed FURIA Esports23c2,511$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.581520%3 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked FURIA Esports34c2,409$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.921250%6 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+58.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcd2…43f3backed FURIA Esports26c2,404$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.852050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed G2 Esports74c2,167$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.7363955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed G2 Esports65c1,992$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.0356557.7%326 W · 239 L+35.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e20…e3c8backed FURIA Esports26c1,973$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.021533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FURIA Esports28c1,943$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.611,28132.1%411 W · 870 L-67.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed G2 Esports75c1,886$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.145658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d35…b406backed FURIA Esports32c1,567$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.325244.2%23 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed FURIA Esports37c1,496$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.7540345.9%185 W · 218 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed FURIA Esports30c1,475$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.5218940.7%77 W · 112 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed FURIA Esports27c1,430$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.474337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked G2 Esports71c1,408$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.6689344.3%396 W · 497 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked FURIA Esports30c1,380$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96615343.8%67 W · 86 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed G2 Esports18c1,340$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.6822118.1%40 W · 181 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed G2 Esports16c1,338$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.6860423%139 W · 465 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63ad…790cbacked FURIA Esports26c1,321$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.171936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed FURIA Esports28c1,234$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.341338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked FURIA Esports25c1,222$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.4955152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked FURIA Esports25c1,168$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.997550.7%38 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed G2 Esports73c1,137$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.7644441.9%186 W · 258 L-22.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed FURIA Esports28c1,115$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.151849.6%257 W · 261 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed G2 Esports76c1,102$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.6146746.7%218 W · 249 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed G2 Esports74c1,081$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80035157.3%201 W · 150 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed G2 Esports60c1,038$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.4281834.8%285 W · 533 L-61.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed FURIA Esports29c1,034$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.4818647.8%89 W · 97 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked FURIA Esports23c1,024$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.1119951.8%103 W · 96 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8f…25f5backed G2 Esports75c1,001$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.751330.8%4 W · 9 L-4.5wins-0.35per pick65cpaid-54.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed G2 Esports78c1,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78028740.8%117 W · 170 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked FURIA Esports29c999.99$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.9926450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedde…0e96backed FURIA Esports14c999.97$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.972857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6129…0807backed G2 Esports45c923.4$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed G2 Esports72c871.44$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.2628352.3%148 W · 135 L-1.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed G2 Esports24c792$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.3966638%253 W · 413 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FURIA Esports23c769.13$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.231,38047.1%650 W · 730 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81d1…4806backed G2 Esports76c766.95$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.888357.8%48 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed FURIA Esports33c725.43$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.0315347.1%72 W · 81 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed G2 Esports76c715.07$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.4919847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked G2 Esports77c707.87$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.581,60737.5%603 W · 1,004 L-75.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76e8…f211backed G2 Esports74c675.64$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.971250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaffc…1d31backed G2 Esports69c670.84$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4601040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01fa…cea7backed G2 Esports75c670.59$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.941030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-48%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed G2 Esports75c666.68$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.016570.8%46 W · 19 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked G2 Esports65c617.97$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.4828942.9%124 W · 165 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7100…c12abacked FURIA Esports33c607.01$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.014235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf194…b52dbacked FURIA Esports16c605.26$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.04837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed G2 Esports74c600$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44413642.6%58 W · 78 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked G2 Esports74c600$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4444369.8%30 W · 13 L+7.2wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+34.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed G2 Esports67c600$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.662156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FURIA Esports34c599.81$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.5224250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked G2 Esports50c594.01$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.9855637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked FURIA Esports27c583$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.3928742.9%123 W · 164 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked FURIA Esports11c580.81$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.926445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FURIA Esports35c567.05$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.5868458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked G2 Esports45c564.27$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.091,61245.1%727 W · 885 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a22…5c62backed FURIA Esports25c556$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+76.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed G2 Esports56c539.37$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007456.8%42 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked G2 Esports34c518.51$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.289737.1%36 W · 61 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4be7…8e91backed FURIA Esports27c495$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.13100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+143.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa64f…bcf8backed G2 Esports68c475.91$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.621464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ff…3506backed FURIA Esports28c463.1$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.11947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+30.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FURIA Esports26c450$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33385138.1%324 W · 527 L-51.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked FURIA Esports33c444.05$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.0525536.9%94 W · 161 L-0.9wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked G2 Esports72c429.45$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.2926858.6%157 W · 111 L+18.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc756…0724backed G2 Esports74c425$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6468…556dbacked FURIA Esports24c421$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+325.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked G2 Esports69c420$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.51,25349.5%620 W · 633 L-3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed FURIA Esports26c412.77$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.4519546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed FURIA Esports24c409.87$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.627146.9%127 W · 144 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9f…a6c0backed FURIA Esports26c404.23$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.131369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+65%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed FURIA Esports26c403.85$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.8511843.2%51 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe638…40e6backed G2 Esports65c403.43$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.23812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick44cpaid-72.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.