TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Legacy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$611,044
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$742,311

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $611,044 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3913…83cabacked Legacy0c50,000$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed Legacy28c50,000$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,999.9820354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Natus Vincere72c50,000$35,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,136.1250054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Legacy29c47,782$13,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,862.7825355.7%141 W · 112 L+19.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Legacy28c45,414$12,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,595.7741040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Natus Vincere72c12,176$8,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,409.2838358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Legacy28c12,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,36011439.5%45 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Natus Vincere72c11,169$8,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,152.5764852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Natus Vincere71c11,012$7,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,193.5246149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Legacy29c10,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9009443.6%41 W · 53 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed Legacy10c7,564$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.1421135.5%75 W · 136 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Natus Vincere71c7,042$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,042.2533359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Legacy29c7,000$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,03078639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Natus Vincere71c6,053$4,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,755.2744648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed Legacy1c6,000$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721190.8%1 W · 118 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5faf…1183backed Legacy26c6,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56010935.8%39 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed Natus Vincere76c5,634$4,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.8919659.2%116 W · 80 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Natus Vincere71c5,500$3,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59537557.3%215 W · 160 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Legacy12c5,287$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.221,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89dd…f662backed Legacy25c4,874$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.526940.6%28 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Natus Vincere71c4,805$3,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.572673.1%19 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere77c4,704$3,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.641,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4d…09febacked Natus Vincere71c4,648$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.892540%10 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ac3…66eabacked Natus Vincere72c4,479$3,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.122466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Natus Vincere73c3,944$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.671,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked Natus Vincere74c3,788$2,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.9641069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x499f…b72bbacked Legacy28c3,613$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014544.8%65 W · 80 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Legacy31c3,569$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12019546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Natus Vincere73c3,432$2,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.1887047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Natus Vincere79c3,043$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.8633553.4%179 W · 156 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed Natus Vincere74c3,007$2,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.6910359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7c…2fcbbacked Legacy26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7801145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe6…7027backed Legacy27c2,800$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7562152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa0…253cbacked Natus Vincere71c2,723$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.5411656.9%66 W · 50 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Natus Vincere76c2,641$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.6915155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Natus Vincere72c2,600$1,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72832542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc9…e551backed Legacy27c2,512$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.122142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+52.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Legacy18c2,494$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.171,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Legacy27c2,190$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.1819351.3%99 W · 94 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Legacy1c2,022$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2232832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca82…fcfebacked Natus Vincere70c2,004$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.2714971.8%107 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Natus Vincere72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56045455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere76c1,994$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.572,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Legacy26c1,978$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.742,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed Natus Vincere72c1,942$1,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.765257.7%30 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed Natus Vincere73c1,840$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50513360.2%80 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Natus Vincere70c1,768$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.0796545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Legacy17c1,711$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.0614042.1%59 W · 81 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd528…a2d2backed Natus Vincere68c1,699$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.6818056.7%102 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere76c1,568$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.851,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Legacy32c1,546$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.198353%44 W · 39 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x876b…d4a1backed Natus Vincere71c1,539$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.3110452.9%55 W · 49 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Legacy31c1,500$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.9817737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2269…6233backed Natus Vincere72c1,454$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.2314363.6%91 W · 52 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Legacy15c1,410$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.314,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49ac…2f1ebacked Natus Vincere71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.4527751.6%143 W · 134 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Natus Vincere72c1,389$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.891,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Legacy10c1,344$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.412,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Legacy31c1,342$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42024233.9%82 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc96…d916backed Legacy28c1,315$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36810333%34 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Legacy28c1,307$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.362,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa83f…b857backed Legacy24c1,191$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9612749.6%63 W · 64 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc746…3943backed Legacy33c1,182$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3907548%36 W · 39 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed Natus Vincere68c1,105$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.8631647.5%150 W · 166 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Legacy1c1,074$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7481843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Legacy25c1,071$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.42,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Natus Vincere71c1,065$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.8560853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed Natus Vincere72c1,034$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.5227961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Natus Vincere71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29051252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9897…c033backed Natus Vincere74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2607548%36 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Legacy33c999.98$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.991,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9044…dcedbacked Natus Vincere80c981$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.066755.2%37 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Legacy13c966.38$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8262738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe96e…f963backed Natus Vincere74c928.86$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.961145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbb…3df5backed Natus Vincere71c890$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.110148.5%49 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Natus Vincere71c877$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.9735054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Natus Vincere80c874.99$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17540950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Legacy8c845.83$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6918837.2%70 W · 118 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Natus Vincere71c805.11$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.4837850.3%190 W · 188 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Legacy26c777.25$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.0935242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed Natus Vincere69c749.99$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23585851.6%443 W · 415 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e8c…13d2backed Legacy17c749.95$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.31825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed Natus Vincere67c746.99$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.5117460.3%105 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Legacy19c736.98$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.0332732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Legacy32c733.63$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.839548.6%192 W · 203 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked Legacy28c719.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022243.7%97 W · 125 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0f…0e48backed Legacy19c705.76$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.937440.5%30 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Natus Vincere71c700$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20355845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Natus Vincere74c682.68$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.283,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1651…470fbacked Natus Vincere72c675.65$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.1810259.8%61 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Natus Vincere74c660$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.136555.9%204 W · 161 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed Natus Vincere72c653.96$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.1136554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Legacy34c627.67$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.415,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8136…772cbacked Natus Vincere68c623.53$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.531457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x846c…0366backed Natus Vincere75c619.71$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.9318963.5%120 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x723a…518bbacked Natus Vincere69c603.18$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.722770.4%19 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Legacy32c600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19232346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Natus Vincere69c600$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18612433.9%42 W · 82 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Natus Vincere75c593.28$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.3247053.2%250 W · 220 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Legacy25c581.8$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.661,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.