Serie A · resolved market
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7f38ea8fe00634fdeeaf9d45648fcbb0362507cbb4040d67eafae27e45cbcff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 7,436$5,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.96 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 31c | 6,241$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.73 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…a8febacked Under | 75c | 2,700$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.88 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 22c | 2,253$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 69c | 2,078$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.95 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 44c | 1,991$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Over | 28c | 1,786$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Over | 28c | 1,786$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 69c | 1,753$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.57 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 45c | 1,600$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.31 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 57c | 900$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Over | 32c | 876.23$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 72c | 701.39$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.39 | 326 | 50.6%165 W · 161 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 69c | 694.74$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.11 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 71c | 678$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.53 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 31c | 604.51$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.4 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 50c | 543.11$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.7 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4e…6478backed Under | 34c | 503.81$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 37c | 486.5$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.16 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 27c | 479.97$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.67 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 62c | 441.29$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.49 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 56c | 407.14$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 76c | 368.78$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 28c | 358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Over | 59c | 348.67$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.01 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 24c | 320$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 72c | 273.81$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 79c | 253.95$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 57c | 233.79$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 43c | 233.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.53 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…56c0backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 26c | 222.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 68c | 221$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 62c | 199.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 26c | 199.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Under | 79c | 183.77$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 27c | 174$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 73c | 137.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 39c | 128.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 20c | 127$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 36c | 121.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +14.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 27c | 108.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 68c | 107.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 46c | 102.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 31c | 99.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 39c | 95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 88.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 49c | 84.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 39c | 83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…0fddbacked Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +6.0wins | +0.32per pick | 31cpaid | +137%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 72c | 71.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 68c | 67.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 69c | 63.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked Under | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 69c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…68a0backed Over | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 70c | 55.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 71c | 55.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f3…51f6backed Under | 33c | 50.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 32c | 41.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 43c | 39.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 72c | 37.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 70c | 26.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 74cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…804abacked Under | 76c | 24.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 115 | 47.8%55 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 69c | 22.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b43…7829backed Under | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 68c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 69c | 20.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 72c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a2…7460backed Under | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Under | 75c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 74c | 16.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5this page
- Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 0.5Over won
- Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5Over won
- Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Over won
- Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5Under won
- Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Pisa SC (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)SSC Napoli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.