Fifa International · resolved market
Will England win the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd997b6fb02a718dfb99fab62190748a054dd9764ee152ecf0f4a6abce1e4d282
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd497…c62fbacked Yes | 15c | 13,109$2,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,014.05 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 11c | 8,121$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.81 | 172 | 35.5%61 W · 111 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked Yes | 18c | 1,627$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 22c | 1,372$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.89 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 79c | 1,200$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.99 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked No | 78c | 1,019$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.68 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 809.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 77c | 746.6$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.55 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 21c | 556.42$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 78c | 534.6$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed68…8762backed Yes | 15c | 512.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 16c | 406.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 343.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 8c | 310.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…a60ebacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 22c | 283.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 212 | 39.6%84 W · 128 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 267.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 255.58$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 11c | 201$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 18c | 194$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c3…37edbacked Yes | 14c | 183.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 14c | 180.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 157 | 47.8%75 W · 82 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 13c | 156.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…4af8backed Yes | 17c | 152$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 8c | 141.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 79c | 135$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 13c | 133.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…1872backed Yes | 17c | 129.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…a724backed Yes | 16c | 127.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 19c | 121.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…180ebacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10c9…61fdbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9a…dcc1backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…cf56backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 96.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…2655backed Yes | 17c | 85.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 22c | 79.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 78c | 56.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 78c | 42.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 171 | 38%65 W · 106 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 585 | 30.9%181 W · 404 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will England win the World Cup?this page
- Will England be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will England be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will England be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will England be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
- Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.