UFC · resolved market
Gutierrez vs. Basharat
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb777854886d596627e36f4839816e2cc4272cfc0f2ab00c3eb35f8ba1d0a1a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Basharatof Gutierrez, Basharat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Gutierrez | 19c | 44,250$8,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,490 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Gutierrez | 18c | 25,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Gutierrez | 7c | 11,053$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.18 | 281 | 43.1%121 W · 160 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Gutierrez | 5c | 10,488$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.4 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Gutierrez | 18c | 8,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Basharat | 80c | 6,250$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Gutierrez | 18c | 6,133$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.94 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Gutierrez | 16c | 4,576$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.09 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Gutierrez | 19c | 3,050$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Gutierrez | 16c | 1,875$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Gutierrez | 18c | 1,791$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.38 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed Basharat | 80c | 1,300$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…8257backed Basharat | 80c | 988$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…bf14backed Gutierrez | 8c | 874.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Gutierrez | 18c | 665.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Basharat | 77c | 607.06$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.72 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Gutierrez | 22c | 599.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Gutierrez | 17c | 504.12$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a6…2fa2backed Gutierrez | 20c | 490.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Gutierrez | 17c | 484.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Gutierrez | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Gutierrez | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Basharat | 79c | 347.62$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Gutierrez | 28c | 250.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Basharat | 80c | 222.73$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Gutierrez | 19c | 206.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Gutierrez | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…b2f9backed Gutierrez | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…2090backed Gutierrez | 18c | 183.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Gutierrez | 19c | 175.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Gutierrez | 18c | 169.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Gutierrez | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Gutierrez | 20c | 150.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 265 | 52.1%138 W · 127 L | +23.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Gutierrez | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Gutierrez | 25c | 139.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Gutierrez | 17c | 124.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Gutierrez | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…ac2ebacked Gutierrez | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e1…e988backed Gutierrez | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed Gutierrez | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Gutierrez | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Gutierrez | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…e7c2backed Gutierrez | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Basharat | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38eb…a211backed Gutierrez | 19c | 58.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…040ebacked Gutierrez | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Gutierrez | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gutierrez vs. Basharatthis page
- Ankalaev vs. PereiraPereira won
- Dvalishvili vs. SandhagenDvalishvili won
- Emmett vs. ZalalZalal won
- Magomedov vs. PyferPyfer won
- Mix vs. WiklaczWiklacz won
- Muniz vs. ShahbazyanShahbazyan won
- Procházka vs. Rountree Jr.Procházka won
- Santos vs. ChiassonSantos won
- Santos vs. YooSantos won
- Soriano vs. VeretennikovSoriano won
- Vanderford vs. BrahimajBrahimaj won
- Walker vs. HardyHardy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.