UFC · resolved market
Walker vs. Hardy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfacb1d9d0b242623642fb141809f29aa2ca4393148f77288b19c441887a750c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hardyof Walker, Hardy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Walker | 14c | 47,388$6,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,634.36 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Walker | 12c | 14,000$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Walker | 12c | 3,951$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Walker | 14c | 3,550$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.17 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Walker | 9c | 2,390$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Walker | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Walker | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…bc18backed Walker | 8c | 1,228$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Walker | 6c | 1,173$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Walker | 10c | 992.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Walker | 14c | 974.89$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Walker | 12c | 899.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…49e2backed Walker | 3c | 754.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…32c8backed Walker | 14c | 607.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Walker | 8c | 467.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…9176backed Walker | 22c | 442.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Walker | 11c | 430.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Walker | 7c | 170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed Walker | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Walker | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Walker | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Walker | 16c | 132$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Walker | 13c | 122$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Walker | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Walker | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Walker | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…6e8ebacked Walker | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Walker | 13c | 99.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…f0f7backed Walker | 22c | 92.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Walker | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Hardy | 77c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Walker vs. Hardythis page
- Ankalaev vs. PereiraPereira won
- Dvalishvili vs. SandhagenDvalishvili won
- Emmett vs. ZalalZalal won
- Gutierrez vs. BasharatBasharat won
- Magomedov vs. PyferPyfer won
- Mix vs. WiklaczWiklacz won
- Muniz vs. ShahbazyanShahbazyan won
- Procházka vs. Rountree Jr.Procházka won
- Santos vs. ChiassonSantos won
- Santos vs. YooSantos won
- Soriano vs. VeretennikovSoriano won
- Vanderford vs. BrahimajBrahimaj won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.