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UFC · resolved market

Soriano vs. Veretennikov

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sorianoof Soriano, Veretennikov
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$145,709
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$179,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,709 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe38e…c29dbacked Soriano76c27,118$20,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,518.3614857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Veretennikov24c16,684$4,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,004.122259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Soriano78c16,000$12,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,583.317656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Soriano76c11,850$9,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,837.0235253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Veretennikov24c10,805$2,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,602.8712541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Veretennikov22c8,009$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.013525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-43.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Soriano77c5,500$4,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.1517158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Veretennikov24c5,251$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.246451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Veretennikov23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.9930039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Veretennikov12c4,503$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.4220139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Veretennikov24c3,992$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9584946.9%23 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked Veretennikov23c3,956$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.426031.7%19 W · 41 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Veretennikov24c3,550$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85235826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Soriano75c3,352$2,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.8833253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Veretennikov24c3,140$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.486533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked Veretennikov24c2,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.52236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Soriano76c2,500$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6006746.3%31 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Soriano75c2,490$1,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.452759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Veretennikov23c2,200$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50611140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Veretennikov25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005435.2%19 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2131…aaf2backed Soriano75c2,000$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.561877.8%14 W · 4 L+5.1wins+0.28per pick50cpaid+70.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Veretennikov34c1,973$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.9218453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Veretennikov24c1,804$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.967841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Veretennikov25c1,800$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Veretennikov23c1,649$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.233151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Veretennikov23c1,609$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.6821044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Veretennikov25c1,380$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.858939.3%35 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Veretennikov9c1,215$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1328143.1%121 W · 160 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Veretennikov22c1,168$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.968940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Soriano76c1,065$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.63234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-25.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x075f…833cbacked Veretennikov25c998.12$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.53650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Soriano77c972.93$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.9821247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x285b…5231backed Veretennikov23c961.01$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.032259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x305e…7d29backed Veretennikov25c949.6$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2371533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-45.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x07a9…32c8backed Soriano77c909.09$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.093342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Veretennikov24c867.08$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.19228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x98f3…bf14backed Soriano67c669.06$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.791040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Soriano76c666$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.8423850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb167…b2f9backed Soriano76c563.11$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.572142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Veretennikov28c530.54$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.555253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Soriano77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11539959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Soriano51c485.42$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.8617850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ec…1bafbacked Veretennikov25c454.88$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.727454.1%40 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Veretennikov12c439$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.99336.6%34 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Veretennikov27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1086829.4%20 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Veretennikov24c397.67$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.444425%11 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Soriano77c388.31$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.316443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Veretennikov24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x929c…8cb6backed Soriano74c300$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.511152.3%58 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Veretennikov22c292$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.244337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Veretennikov23c240$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.236745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Soriano78c238.23$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4111540.9%47 W · 68 L-10.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Veretennikov24c204$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.968826.1%23 W · 65 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Veretennikov23c200$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4528743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Veretennikov25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5036755.3%203 W · 164 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Veretennikov24c200$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4716736.5%61 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Soriano76c199.96$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9956450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Soriano67c162$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4624847.2%117 W · 131 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Soriano77c150$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.510651.9%55 W · 51 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Veretennikov25c132$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3316851.8%87 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Soriano76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5822853.1%121 W · 107 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Soriano77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.876756.7%38 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f84…7650backed Soriano77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.876155.7%34 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Veretennikov25c117.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4531855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a03…47c1backed Veretennikov26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe86…ec62backed Soriano77c103.9$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.98354.2%45 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Veretennikov11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Veretennikov10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1037854.8%207 W · 171 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Veretennikov25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514827%40 W · 108 L+0.3wins0.00per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Soriano76c99.98$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2452252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Soriano76c98.41$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6210522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb575…2090backed Veretennikov24c91.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5f…1dc6backed Veretennikov24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202040%8 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Veretennikov34c81.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8722334.1%76 W · 147 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…6e8ebacked Veretennikov23c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.44143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed0…92debacked Soriano76c78.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9512245.1%55 W · 67 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146a…36fabacked Soriano77c71.43$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.437552%39 W · 36 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Soriano73c69.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.895455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec6…a530backed Veretennikov20c69.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0150%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Soriano76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.798143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb18b…4e0ebacked Soriano77c64.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.621338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-28.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe016…424bbacked Veretennikov25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158932.6%29 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Veretennikov24c58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9212147.1%57 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Soriano76c58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.216058.8%94 W · 66 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Veretennikov24c56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5819230.7%59 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78f0…c63cbacked Veretennikov24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124052.5%21 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a07…05c1backed Veretennikov24c45.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9376…1655backed Soriano77c44.44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.221030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-43.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed Soriano67c43.7$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.426731.3%21 W · 46 L-9.8wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Veretennikov25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011138.7%43 W · 68 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Veretennikov25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3149…9762backed Soriano77c22.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.084450%22 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8156…507cbacked Soriano76c16.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-44.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58ca…0672backed Soriano75c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.54946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd263…54a7backed Soriano75c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.53946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe936…8944backed Soriano77c12.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.993100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.