TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Muniz vs. Shahbazyan

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shahbazyanof Muniz, Shahbazyan
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,278
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,655

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,278 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96e1…50aabacked Shahbazyan75c18,449$13,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,666.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Muniz28c15,835$4,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,433.8135253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Shahbazyan76c15,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,60016951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Shahbazyan72c12,579$9,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,522.022759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Shahbazyan73c11,875$8,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,206.336841.2%28 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Muniz28c10,320$2,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,889.629151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Muniz24c6,770$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.863525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-43.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Muniz26c6,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5605632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Muniz26c5,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3003661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Shahbazyan72c4,205$3,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.412541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Muniz24c4,100$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9849336.6%34 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Muniz24c4,063$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9754665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Muniz27c4,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0804946.9%23 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Muniz27c3,581$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.0830039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Muniz28c3,342$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.2514857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Shahbazyan72c3,320$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.613151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Muniz27c3,100$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.086533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Muniz27c2,803$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.7521044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Muniz28c2,050$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.4635826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Shahbazyan73c1,831$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.376451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07a9…32c8backed Shahbazyan74c1,351$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.353342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Muniz23c1,297$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.788840.9%36 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Muniz27c1,110$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.6216247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Shahbazyan68c1,095$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.4720139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Shahbazyan73c1,017$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.585362.3%33 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Muniz1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98f3…bf14backed Muniz28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Muniz25c962.41$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.58939.3%35 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Muniz27c864.81$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.59228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Shahbazyan72c666$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.4823850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Muniz26c600$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1566829.4%20 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Muniz6c562$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.321247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Muniz27c555.56$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Muniz27c522.26$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6851533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Shahbazyan73c521$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6713450%67 W · 67 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Shahbazyan75c500$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12639959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Shahbazyan72c448.54$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.593234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-25.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Shahbazyan69c440$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.4714530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Shahbazyan69c422.31$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.8530964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00c7…bb17backed Shahbazyan73c342.47$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.47450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd6…bc18backed Muniz32c316.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Muniz27c313.17$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Muniz37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1117451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Shahbazyan72c300$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.536745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Shahbazyan73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.974746.8%22 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e2d…4323backed Shahbazyan73c191.78$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.786451.6%33 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Shahbazyan70c180$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.813160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Shahbazyan74c175.68$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.686756.7%38 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x021a…56cbbacked Muniz29c173.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Shahbazyan74c152.56$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6752252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Muniz27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.510651.9%55 W · 51 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8a7…8f05backed Muniz27c148.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405839.7%23 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc02…958abacked Muniz28c142$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.63751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Shahbazyan73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9922342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe86…ec62backed Shahbazyan73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.998354.2%45 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc9f…45debacked Muniz29c134.76$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.082045%9 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb575…2090backed Muniz29c111.52$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85f1…a6b5backed Muniz32c110.46$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-49.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Shahbazyan77c110$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7126451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Muniz26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2616736.5%61 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78f0…c63cbacked Shahbazyan74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264052.5%21 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5ec…1bafbacked Muniz28c92.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.997454.1%40 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac8c…415cbacked Shahbazyan69c92.43$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.371241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Muniz28c88.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2531855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Muniz24c82.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8612446.8%58 W · 66 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Muniz35c81.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6915839.2%62 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Muniz27c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.656450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Shahbazyan73c73.58$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5816058.8%94 W · 66 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x44d6…aafdbacked Muniz28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206243.5%27 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Shahbazyan73c70$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.95455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f84…7650backed Shahbazyan73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.496155.7%34 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb18b…4e0ebacked Shahbazyan74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.571338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-28.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Shahbazyan77c57$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1153956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Muniz27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.521144.1%93 W · 118 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Shahbazyan72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147448.6%36 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2878…dd87backed Muniz28c45.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134540%18 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+22.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x946f…3bf2backed Muniz43c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Shahbazyan73c36.77$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9322753.3%121 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e24…51afbacked Shahbazyan73c34.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.251758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3149…9762backed Shahbazyan73c30.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.284450%22 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9b7…a5d6backed Shahbazyan73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.