TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,252
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,596

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,252 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8ca3…2d23backed Over5c17,504$892 inLost-$892.29277.4%2 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Over5c8,887$444 inLost-$444.3732029.4%94 W · 226 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5131…0c83backed Over1c3,158$28 inLost-$28.3850%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Over6c3,150$185 inLost-$184.6560511.4%69 W · 536 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed Over1c3,000$30 inLost-$30362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+177.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae76…2763backed Over6c2,167$130 inLost-$13018626.3%49 W · 137 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bb1…eac3backed Over4c2,010$80 inLost-$80.4115920.1%32 W · 127 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Over5c2,000$100 inLost-$10028526.3%75 W · 210 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3499…5d84backed Over1c1,340$16 inLost-$15.9690%0 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over3c941.16$29 inLost-$28.652,45334.7%850 W · 1,603 L+84.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Over5c733$37 inLost-$36.651,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over5c613.2$31 inLost-$30.668,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e89…3e0abacked Over5c600$30 inLost-$3026716.1%43 W · 224 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over4c599.96$24 inLost-$241,42147.8%679 W · 742 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa764…20e6backed Over5c400$20 inLost-$201323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-54.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bb1…daf7backed Over5c393$20 inLost-$2018821.8%41 W · 147 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe059…daaebacked Over6c333.33$20 inLost-$2011720.5%24 W · 93 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06be…8a46backed Over5c200$10 inLost-$109919.2%19 W · 80 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Over10c150$15 inLost-$14.5387237.8%330 W · 542 L-39.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.