Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15d80ab940cf2f7b6c7daeb265af6d49aac06796d7229c4c3ce274fb997901f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Australiaof Paraguay, Australia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $269,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $269,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac47…d234backed Paraguay | 14c | 74,024$10,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,363.36 | 210 | 29%61 W · 149 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…3d54backed Paraguay | 13c | 54,487$6,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,811.41 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Paraguay | 11c | 43,142$4,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,828.04 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…1ebfbacked Paraguay | 14c | 14,160$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.36 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Paraguay | 14c | 8,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.99 | 1,536 | 49.1%754 W · 782 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Paraguay | 15c | 2,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.98 | 142 | 34.5%49 W · 93 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…849bbacked Paraguay | 15c | 2,253$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Paraguay | 10c | 2,180$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.15 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Paraguay | 12c | 1,600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Paraguay | 7c | 1,284$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19da…53fcbacked Paraguay | 13c | 1,115$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Paraguay | 5c | 1,073$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…12bdbacked Paraguay | 15c | 933.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 140 | 35.7%50 W · 90 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Paraguay | 12c | 845.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 659 | 48.6%320 W · 339 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…776dbacked Paraguay | 14c | 699.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Paraguay | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Paraguay | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 228 | 46.9%107 W · 121 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Paraguay | 16c | 600$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Paraguay | 6c | 569.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…30abbacked Paraguay | 15c | 518.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…67fdbacked Paraguay | 14c | 499.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 320 | 46.6%149 W · 171 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Paraguay | 15c | 474.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Paraguay | 4c | 431.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 432 | 30.1%130 W · 302 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Paraguay | 13c | 353.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 489 | 37%181 W · 308 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6e…4018backed Paraguay | 14c | 313$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 91 | 14.3%13 W · 78 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a15…e238backed Paraguay | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Paraguay | 12c | 278.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 1,390 | 46.3%644 W · 746 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Paraguay | 6c | 240$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 575 | 41.7%240 W · 335 L | -20.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…43b2backed Paraguay | 14c | 240$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Paraguay | 6c | 240$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 464 | 45.5%211 W · 253 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a52…c0e8backed Paraguay | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a5…2165backed Paraguay | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09dd…7e13backed Paraguay | 9c | 199.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 379 | 44.1%167 W · 212 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…b157backed Paraguay | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 30.8%37 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…a450backed Paraguay | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Paraguay | 14c | 159.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 165 | 35.2%58 W · 107 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Paraguay | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 239 | 40.6%97 W · 142 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Paraguay | 7c | 138.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 719 | 39.1%281 W · 438 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6343…943bbacked Paraguay | 16c | 133.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 133 | 31.6%42 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…31c6backed Paraguay | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…02b0backed Paraguay | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 365 | 34.2%125 W · 240 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…4ddebacked Paraguay | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…68b8backed Paraguay | 15c | 109.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 322 | 45.3%146 W · 176 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Paraguay | 14c | 101.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Paraguay | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 481 | 47.8%230 W · 251 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Paraguay | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…44c1backed Paraguay | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a99…d92ebacked Paraguay | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)this page
- Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 0.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 1.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Australia (-1.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Australia (-2.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Australia (-3.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Australia (-5.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)Australia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.