Spread: Sweden (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe896d7b10fafe90d9ffce055c04e1e0f10e4c53b19dd645f50677ac096fec888

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Greeceof Sweden, Greece
Resolved: Jun 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,820
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,998

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,820 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Sweden	20c	2,723$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.22	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Sweden	9c	2,049$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.22	316	44.9%142 W · 174 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Greece	78c	1,797$1,409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$387.44	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cbb…8a37backed Sweden	28c	1,795$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.27	76	32.9%25 W · 51 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Sweden	14c	1,607$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	462	23.2%107 W · 355 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Greece	78c	1,395$1,088 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306.05	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ff…79dcbacked Sweden	28c	1,373$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383	138	43.5%60 W · 78 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0a…cbc9backed Sweden	28c	1,152$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.69	61	52.5%32 W · 29 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Greece	72c	1,146$827 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.42	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a2…3f53backed Sweden	27c	931.42$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.48	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	+6.0wins	+0.10per pick	33cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Greece	74c	868.95$641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.04	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sweden	21c	856.5$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.88	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Greece	73c	756.99$549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.1	55	63.6%35 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Sweden	11c	684.25$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.24	190	26.3%50 W · 140 L	-10.1wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc48…c120backed Greece	73c	600$438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162	374	51.6%193 W · 181 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Greece	72c	600$432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	352	51.7%182 W · 170 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Greece	73c	509.96$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.24	244	48.4%118 W · 126 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Greece	73c	468.28$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.26	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Greece	72c	400$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	384	51.6%198 W · 186 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Greece	73c	338$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.53	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Greece	72c	320.95$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.48	399	51.4%205 W · 194 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Sweden	13c	320.9$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.62	444	35.4%157 W · 287 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Greece	72c	300$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	353	52.7%186 W · 167 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd73…4da1backed Sweden	5c	250$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	197	13.7%27 W · 170 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Sweden	21c	232.7$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.44	631	51.5%325 W · 306 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Sweden	6c	207$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	260	47.3%123 W · 137 L	+8.1wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Sweden	7c	206.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.86	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Greece	73c	200.81$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.22	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Sweden	28c	175.82$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.92	147	38.8%57 W · 90 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Greece	72c	170.15$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.64	408	48.8%199 W · 209 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Sweden	28c	168$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.04	281	62.6%176 W · 105 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65f4…5222backed Sweden	26c	160.54$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	268	35.4%95 W · 173 L	-8.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Greece	72c	160$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.8	354	51.4%182 W · 172 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Greece	72c	156$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.68	374	52.1%195 W · 179 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Greece	72c	155.74$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.01	1,688	54.4%918 W · 770 L	+31.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Sweden	28c	150.58$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.16	481	52.4%252 W · 229 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x575f…9287backed Sweden	27c	150$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-3.4wins	-0.20per pick	32cpaid	-74.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Sweden	27c	148.15$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	257	27.2%70 W · 187 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Greece	72c	139.97$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.19	370	51.4%190 W · 180 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Greece	74c	135.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.14	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Sweden	13c	132$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	935	42.2%395 W · 540 L	-27.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe253…b9c7backed Sweden	29c	131.45$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.12	65	33.8%22 W · 43 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Greece	73c	130.99$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.37	397	46.3%184 W · 213 L	-28.9wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Sweden	21c	130.67$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.12	1,001	53.9%540 W · 461 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Greece	74c	125$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.69	815	54.8%447 W · 368 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb83b…dc66backed Sweden	28c	107.14$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	62	32.3%20 W · 42 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Greece	73c	100.1$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.03	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Greece	72c	100$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	336	53.3%179 W · 157 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Greece	72c	100$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	377	53.8%203 W · 174 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6328…1bf3backed Greece	72c	99.99$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Sweden	28c	97.57$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.32	847	51%432 W · 415 L	+10.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff1…afedbacked Sweden	21c	97.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	127	33.9%43 W · 84 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11c9…1184backed Sweden	26c	96.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	51	27.5%14 W · 37 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb700…5a62backed Sweden	27c	82.85$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.37	98	52%51 W · 47 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Sweden	27c	74.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.15	363	29.8%108 W · 255 L	-17.4wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Sweden	20c	74.28$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.57	146	47.3%69 W · 77 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x305e…b28bbacked Sweden	25c	72$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	261	33.3%87 W · 174 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Greece	77c	64.94$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.94	63	73%46 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	74cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe569…e759backed Sweden	25c	62.56$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.64	524	41.4%217 W · 307 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Sweden	30c	60.66$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe89…e3c0backed Sweden	27c	55.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	82	45.1%37 W · 45 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Sweden	25c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	98	38.8%38 W · 60 L	-8.8wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-31%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Greece	73c	49$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.23	413	44.1%182 W · 231 L	-16.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Greece	74c	47.28$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.29	271	54.6%148 W · 123 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Greece	73c	42$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.34	548	59.5%326 W · 222 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Greece	74c	41.61$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.88	235	52.8%124 W · 111 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x446d…a0b2backed Greece	75c	38$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	72	69.4%50 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	70cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Greece	74c	32$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.32	166	59.6%99 W · 67 L	-9.8wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Greece	73c	27.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.46	414	51.4%213 W · 201 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Greece	73c	27.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.46	355	49.9%177 W · 178 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Greece	72c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.6	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Greece	72c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.6	423	52%220 W · 203 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa402…d14bbacked Greece	73c	17.32$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.68	146	53.4%78 W · 68 L	-11.6wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Greece	73c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.05	2,231	49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb207…839bbacked Greece	76c	14.47$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.47	75	65.3%49 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Greece	73c	13.82$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.73	370	57.3%212 W · 158 L	+13.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Sweden (-1.5)this page
Spread: Greece (-1.5)Sweden won
Spread: Greece (-2.5)Sweden won
Spread: Sweden (-2.5)Greece won
Sweden vs. Greece: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 0.5Over won
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 1.5Over won
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5Over won
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5Over won
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 4.5Under won
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 5.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Sweden (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event