Tweets · resolved market
Will White House post 200+ posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf05e1e5611b9d50ae62331f78eccc8de9532ae3327c90cd113491f10b43a096e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 18c | 764.36$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.63 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 49c | 657.9$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.43 | 251 | 27.1%68 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 26c | 534.11$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.92 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 2c | 483.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 330.32$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 293.13$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…e651backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 74 | 10.8%8 W · 66 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 167$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 32c | 154.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 55c | 153.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 14c | 146.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 15c | 139.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 76c | 131.67$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 105 | 12.4%13 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 120.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 113$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 55c | 111$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 49c | 103.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…ee76backed Yes | 20c | 102.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 89.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 17c | 62.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 26c | 52.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked No | 79c | 52.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 49cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f4…ffadbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4056…c4f1backed No | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5568…9ea3backed Yes | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 54c | 20.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b5…79b6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…d61ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…aa50backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will White House post 200+ posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?this page
- Will White House post 120-139 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will White House post 140-159 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will White House post 160-179 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.